Cross-Tabs: August 2024 Times/Siena Poll of the Likely Electorate in North Carolina (2025)

Results of a North Carolina New York Times/Siena College poll conducted among 655 likely voters from Aug. 9 to 14, 2024.

All states: registered voters | likely electorate
Arizona: toplines | registered voters | likely electorate
Georgia: toplines | registered voters | likely electorate
Nevada: toplines | registered voters | likely electorate
North Carolina: toplines | registered voters | likely electorate

Thinking ahead to the presidential general election, are you almost certain that you will vote, very likely to vote, somewhat likely to vote, not very likely to vote or not at all likely to vote?

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Almost certain

66%

64%

67%

44%

63%

71%

71%

67%

63%

56%

71%

63%

75%

62%

59%

62%

69%

63%

69%

67%

66%

65%

62%

70%

66%

68%

67%

38%

69%

68%

50%

39%

69%

70%

61%

69%

68%

61%

70%

72%

38%

Very likely

28%

29%

26%

44%

32%

23%

23%

28%

26%

31%

24%

30%

21%

33%

33%

26%

27%

26%

26%

26%

30%

30%

32%

25%

27%

27%

28%

22%

28%

28%

15%

29%

27%

27%

27%

26%

27%

29%

25%

25%

41%

Somewhat likely

3%

3%

3%

8%

3%

2%

3%

2%

5%

8%

3%

3%

2%

2%

5%

7%

3%

6%

2%

1%

2%

3%

2%

3%

3%

2%

3%

17%

1%

2%

20%

14%

2%

1%

7%

2%

3%

4%

3%

1%

12%

Not very likely

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

1%

<.5%

1%

<.5%

1%

<1%

<.5%

<.5%

2%

2%

<.5%

0%

2%

0%

<.5%

<.5%

<1%

4%

0%

<.5%

0%

8%

0%

<1%

1%

0%

<.5%

1%

<.5%

<1%

2%

Not at all likely

<1%

<1%

<1%

2%

1%

0%

2%

1%

<1%

1%

<1%

1%

<1%

1%

0%

1%

0%

2%

0%

2%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<.5%

1%

<1%

<.5%

9%

<.5%

<.5%

10%

3%

<.5%

<1%

1%

0%

1%

2%

<.5%

<1%

6%

[VOLUNTEERED] Already voted

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

[VOLUNTEERED] Don't know/Refused

2%

2%

1%

<1%

<.5%

3%

2%

1%

3%

3%

1%

2%

<.5%

2%

3%

3%

<1%

3%

2%

1%

<1%

1%

2%

1%

2%

2%

<1%

9%

2%

<1%

5%

7%

2%

<.5%

2%

2%

<.5%

2%

2%

<1%

2%

Number of respondents

655

295

352

98

135

235

165

439

118

79

318

335

214

225

95

102

69

187

70

84

124

121

174

144

337

330

293

32

308

272

31

44

195

192

224

210

200

245

277

249

82

Percentage of total electorate

100%

46%

53%

14%

21%

33%

28%

69%

17%

11%

40%

60%

29%

40%

10%

18%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

19%

24%

22%

53%

49%

47%

4%

46%

44%

4%

6%

30%

32%

32%

33%

33%

35%

41%

41%

11%

(Combined presidential ballot, includes leaners to major-party candidates) If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Kamala [COMMA-luh] Harris, the Democrat

49%

40%

56%

56%

57%

44%

46%

41%

86%

43%

60%

41%

59%

28%

68%

71%

36%

44%

69%

44%

62%

43%

66%

48%

41%

100%

0%

0%

100%

0%

32%

27%

95%

4%

51%

90%

6%

51%

92%

3%

66%

Donald Trump, the Republican

47%

54%

41%

40%

41%

50%

51%

56%

9%

47%

35%

55%

38%

69%

25%

22%

62%

52%

25%

52%

33%

53%

28%

48%

55%

0%

100%

0%

0%

100%

44%

21%

4%

94%

42%

8%

91%

42%

4%

96%

28%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

4%

5%

3%

4%

3%

5%

3%

3%

5%

10%

5%

4%

4%

2%

7%

7%

2%

4%

6%

4%

5%

4%

6%

4%

3%

0%

0%

100%

0%

0%

24%

52%

<1%

2%

8%

2%

2%

7%

4%

<.5%

6%

MARGIN Harris +2 Calculated using candidates’ unrounded vote shares

Number of respondents

655

295

352

98

135

235

165

439

118

79

318

335

214

225

95

102

69

187

70

84

124

121

174

144

337

330

293

32

308

272

31

44

195

192

224

210

200

245

277

249

82

Percentage of total electorate

100%

46%

53%

14%

21%

33%

28%

69%

17%

11%

40%

60%

29%

40%

10%

18%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

19%

24%

22%

53%

49%

47%

4%

46%

44%

4%

6%

30%

32%

32%

33%

33%

35%

41%

41%

11%

(Combined presidential ballot, includes leaners to third-party candidates) If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Kamala [COMMA-luh] Harris, the Democrat

46%

38%

52%

49%

56%

41%

43%

39%

81%

41%

58%

38%

57%

25%

63%

67%

35%

40%

69%

41%

60%

39%

63%

47%

38%

94%

0%

0%

100%

0%

0%

0%

93%

4%

44%

86%

5%

48%

89%

3%

58%

Donald Trump, the Republican

44%

49%

40%

34%

34%

49%

50%

53%

7%

41%

32%

52%

35%

67%

24%

17%

58%

50%

24%

45%

31%

50%

24%

45%

53%

0%

94%

0%

0%

100%

0%

0%

3%

92%

35%

7%

87%

39%

3%

92%

25%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the third-party candidate

4%

6%

3%

10%

5%

3%

2%

4%

2%

7%

4%

4%

4%

4%

3%

4%

4%

5%

0%

9%

2%

4%

3%

4%

5%

3%

4%

24%

0%

0%

100%

0%

<1%

2%

8%

3%

5%

5%

3%

3%

9%

Jill Stein [stine], the Green Party candidate

1%

1%

2%

1%

3%

<1%

<1%

<1%

3%

4%

1%

2%

<.5%

<1%

3%

4%

<1%

1%

0%

5%

2%

0%

4%

1%

<.5%

1%

<1%

7%

0%

0%

0%

24%

0%

0%

4%

<.5%

1%

3%

<1%

<1%

2%

[VOL] Cornel West, the third-party candidate

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

Chase Oliver, the Libertarian Party candidate

<1%

2%

<.5%

1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

2%

1%

<1%

1%

<1%

1%

<1%

0%

<.5%

2%

0%

2%

2%

2%

<1%

<1%

<.5%

1%

5%

0%

0%

0%

16%

0%

0%

3%

0%

<1%

2%

<.5%

<1%

<.5%

[VOL] Another candidate (specify)

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

[VOL] Not going to vote/wouldn't vote if those were the choices

<1%

<1%

<.5%

1%

<1%

<.5%

1%

<1%

0%

<1%

1%

<.5%

1%

<.5%

<1%

0%

<1%

<1%

1%

0%

<1%

0%

2%

0%

<.5%

0%

0%

16%

0%

0%

0%

11%

0%

<.5%

<1%

<.5%

<1%

1%

<.5%

<.5%

<1%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

3%

3%

3%

3%

1%

5%

2%

1%

7%

6%

2%

3%

<1%

2%

5%

7%

1%

3%

4%

<1%

4%

5%

3%

3%

3%

2%

<.5%

47%

0%

0%

0%

49%

2%

2%

5%

4%

<1%

3%

4%

<.5%

5%

MARGIN Harris +2 Calculated using candidates’ unrounded vote shares

Number of respondents

655

295

352

98

135

235

165

439

118

79

318

335

214

225

95

102

69

187

70

84

124

121

174

144

337

330

293

32

308

272

31

44

195

192

224

210

200

245

277

249

82

Percentage of total electorate

100%

46%

53%

14%

21%

33%

28%

69%

17%

11%

40%

60%

29%

40%

10%

18%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

19%

24%

22%

53%

49%

47%

4%

46%

44%

4%

6%

30%

32%

32%

33%

33%

35%

41%

41%

11%

(If candidate selected, including third-party candidates) Are you definitely or probably going to vote for [CANDIDATE SELECTED]?

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Definitely

82%

83%

81%

72%

77%

85%

88%

85%

81%

63%

82%

82%

84%

86%

80%

71%

83%

80%

85%

73%

83%

89%

81%

84%

82%

84%

82%

33%

87%

85%

27%

33%

90%

86%

75%

88%

84%

75%

86%

85%

62%

Probably

16%

15%

18%

25%

22%

13%

12%

14%

17%

35%

16%

17%

14%

13%

19%

27%

17%

17%

12%

25%

16%

11%

17%

15%

16%

15%

16%

55%

13%

13%

67%

67%

10%

13%

22%

11%

15%

22%

13%

14%

34%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

2%

2%

1%

3%

2%

2%

<.5%

1%

2%

2%

2%

1%

2%

<1%

<1%

2%

<1%

3%

3%

1%

<1%

<1%

2%

1%

2%

<1%

2%

11%

<.5%

3%

6%

0%

0%

<1%

3%

1%

<1%

3%

<1%

1%

4%

Number of respondents

629

283

338

91

132

226

159

427

111

73

306

321

209

218

89

95

66

180

66

83

117

117

163

141

325

326

291

12

308

272

31

18

191

187

211

202

196

231

267

246

74

Percentage of total electorate

100%

45%

53%

14%

22%

33%

28%

70%

17%

11%

40%

60%

29%

41%

10%

17%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

18%

24%

23%

53%

50%

49%

2%

48%

46%

4%

2%

31%

32%

31%

32%

33%

34%

40%

43%

11%

(Leaners, if not supporting Trump or Harris in previous multi-candidate questions) If you had to decide between the two today, would you lean more toward:

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Kamala [COMMA-luh] Harris, the Democrat

29%

17%

42%

43%

12%

28%

34%

29%

41%

14%

27%

30%

22%

34%

34%

25%

21%

39%

0%

21%

29%

33%

23%

18%

37%

100%

0%

0%

-

-

32%

27%

55%

9%

33%

52%

17%

24%

35%

12%

44%

Donald Trump, the Republican

31%

42%

16%

33%

63%

16%

16%

36%

17%

32%

26%

34%

35%

37%

13%

29%

49%

25%

8%

50%

22%

28%

31%

32%

30%

0%

100%

0%

-

-

44%

21%

23%

39%

30%

15%

56%

24%

16%

79%

18%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

41%

41%

42%

24%

25%

55%

50%

35%

42%

54%

47%

36%

43%

29%

53%

45%

30%

35%

92%

29%

49%

39%

46%

50%

34%

0%

0%

100%

-

-

24%

52%

22%

52%

37%

32%

27%

52%

49%

9%

38%

Number of respondents

75

41

33

23

15

23

12

41

16

16

35

40

19

22

14

18

7

23

6

13

13

13

26

14

35

22

21

32

31

44

6

10

48

16

18

41

22

15

22

Percentage of total electorate

100%

58%

41%

25%

23%

32%

18%

56%

22%

20%

39%

61%

23%

33%

14%

28%

8%

30%

7%

18%

18%

19%

33%

18%

49%

29%

31%

41%

41%

59%

10%

12%

65%

24%

27%

48%

33%

24%

18%

(Ask only in NC) If this year’s general election for North Carolina governor were held today, which candidate would you be more likely to vote for?

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Josh Stein, the Democrat

49%

40%

56%

54%

52%

42%

50%

42%

81%

38%

61%

40%

60%

30%

66%

64%

31%

44%

71%

44%

63%

42%

66%

46%

42%

90%

8%

22%

90%

7%

38%

40%

88%

8%

52%

85%

12%

49%

87%

9%

58%

Mark Robinson, the Republican

39%

45%

34%

33%

34%

43%

42%

47%

5%

39%

28%

46%

32%

59%

18%

18%

62%

42%

19%

43%

25%

43%

21%

44%

45%

3%

79%

19%

3%

80%

41%

18%

2%

84%

31%

6%

79%

32%

5%

81%

21%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

12%

15%

10%

13%

14%

15%

8%

10%

14%

23%

11%

14%

8%

12%

16%

18%

7%

14%

10%

13%

12%

15%

13%

10%

13%

7%

14%

59%

7%

13%

21%

42%

10%

8%

17%

9%

9%

18%

9%

10%

21%

Number of respondents

655

295

352

98

135

235

165

439

118

79

318

335

214

225

95

102

69

187

70

84

124

121

174

144

337

330

293

32

308

272

31

44

195

192

224

210

200

245

277

249

82

Percentage of total electorate

100%

46%

53%

14%

21%

33%

28%

69%

17%

11%

40%

60%

29%

40%

10%

18%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

19%

24%

22%

53%

49%

47%

4%

46%

44%

4%

6%

30%

32%

32%

33%

33%

35%

41%

41%

11%

(Responses reclassified by age group) In what year were you born?

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

18-29

14%

15%

13%

100%

0%

0%

0%

14%

11%

29%

12%

16%

12%

15%

15%

19%

20%

13%

17%

14%

16%

11%

16%

18%

12%

17%

12%

15%

15%

11%

35%

18%

14%

11%

16%

11%

13%

19%

9%

8%

55%

30-44

21%

22%

21%

0%

100%

0%

0%

21%

20%

25%

30%

15%

31%

14%

27%

19%

17%

20%

24%

25%

25%

18%

23%

19%

21%

25%

18%

14%

25%

16%

25%

21%

21%

17%

26%

21%

18%

25%

29%

16%

18%

45-64

33%

33%

34%

0%

0%

100%

0%

32%

41%

32%

35%

33%

34%

30%

36%

39%

37%

31%

43%

29%

33%

35%

32%

34%

34%

30%

36%

44%

30%

37%

26%

37%

35%

33%

35%

36%

33%

32%

31%

39%

18%

65+

28%

27%

28%

0%

0%

0%

100%

30%

26%

13%

21%

32%

21%

37%

21%

20%

24%

33%

16%

26%

23%

32%

24%

25%

30%

26%

30%

22%

26%

31%

14%

20%

29%

35%

21%

29%

33%

21%

29%

34%

9%

Refused

3%

3%

4%

0%

0%

0%

0%

3%

2%

1%

2%

4%

2%

3%

<1%

2%

1%

4%

0%

7%

3%

5%

4%

3%

3%

3%

4%

6%

3%

4%

0%

4%

2%

4%

2%

4%

3%

3%

3%

4%

0%

Number of respondents

655

295

352

98

135

235

165

439

118

79

318

335

214

225

95

102

69

187

70

84

124

121

174

144

337

330

293

32

308

272

31

44

195

192

224

210

200

245

277

249

82

Percentage of total electorate

100%

46%

53%

14%

21%

33%

28%

69%

17%

11%

40%

60%

29%

40%

10%

18%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

19%

24%

22%

53%

49%

47%

4%

46%

44%

4%

6%

30%

32%

32%

33%

33%

35%

41%

41%

11%

What is the highest educational level that you have completed?

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Grade school

2%

3%

2%

<.5%

2%

3%

2%

1%

1%

8%

0%

4%

0%

3%

0%

6%

<1%

<1%

2%

5%

<.5%

7%

2%

1%

3%

3%

2%

0%

3%

2%

0%

6%

2%

<1%

4%

3%

3%

<1%

1%

3%

6%

High school

25%

26%

24%

30%

15%

26%

29%

23%

30%

34%

0%

42%

0%

39%

0%

50%

34%

31%

32%

17%

15%

23%

21%

21%

28%

21%

29%

31%

20%

29%

32%

28%

28%

30%

18%

27%

28%

20%

19%

29%

37%

Vocational or trade school

3%

4%

2%

5%

<1%

4%

3%

4%

2%

<.5%

0%

5%

0%

7%

0%

2%

7%

4%

0%

6%

0%

3%

1%

4%

4%

1%

5%

3%

1%

4%

10%

4%

2%

6%

2%

3%

5%

2%

<1%

5%

4%

Some college, no degree

19%

19%

18%

18%

17%

18%

22%

18%

21%

17%

0%

31%

0%

31%

0%

31%

18%

20%

7%

26%

12%

25%

14%

23%

19%

17%

21%

15%

18%

21%

12%

11%

17%

22%

15%

19%

19%

18%

18%

20%

21%

Associate’s degree

10%

9%

12%

13%

9%

8%

12%

12%

8%

5%

0%

17%

0%

21%

0%

11%

7%

11%

2%

12%

12%

13%

5%

12%

12%

8%

13%

6%

8%

14%

8%

11%

8%

14%

10%

5%

13%

13%

8%

13%

8%

Bachelor's degree

25%

24%

27%

28%

36%

27%

15%

27%

27%

16%

63%

0%

65%

0%

61%

0%

24%

21%

37%

20%

36%

18%

34%

26%

21%

31%

19%

27%

31%

19%

22%

27%

25%

20%

33%

25%

22%

28%

32%

19%

19%

Graduate or professional degree

15%

15%

15%

6%

20%

14%

16%

14%

11%

21%

37%

0%

35%

0%

39%

0%

10%

13%

20%

13%

24%

10%

22%

12%

12%

19%

10%

18%

19%

10%

17%

12%

19%

7%

18%

17%

10%

17%

22%

10%

5%

[VOL] Refused

<.5%

<1%

<.5%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

1%

<1%

0%

0%

<1%

<1%

<.5%

0%

<1%

<.5%

0%

0%

0%

<.5%

0%

0%

<.5%

<1%

0%

<.5%

0%

Number of respondents

655

295

352

98

135

235

165

439

118

79

318

335

214

225

95

102

69

187

70

84

124

121

174

144

337

330

293

32

308

272

31

44

195

192

224

210

200

245

277

249

82

Percentage of total electorate

100%

46%

53%

14%

21%

33%

28%

69%

17%

11%

40%

60%

29%

40%

10%

18%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

19%

24%

22%

53%

49%

47%

4%

46%

44%

4%

6%

30%

32%

32%

33%

33%

35%

41%

41%

11%

Would you consider yourself:

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

White

68%

69%

67%

65%

70%

65%

75%

99%

0%

0%

71%

67%

99%

99%

0%

0%

80%

61%

54%

67%

67%

83%

55%

74%

72%

57%

82%

41%

58%

83%

68%

43%

50%

87%

72%

46%

90%

69%

57%

85%

52%

Hispanic or Latino

4%

4%

4%

9%

4%

4%

1%

0%

0%

35%

1%

6%

0%

0%

5%

19%

6%

4%

10%

2%

3%

<1%

7%

3%

3%

4%

3%

11%

4%

3%

13%

6%

4%

3%

5%

5%

1%

5%

3%

2%

13%

Black or African American

17%

15%

20%

13%

16%

21%

16%

0%

100%

0%

16%

18%

0%

0%

62%

61%

7%

24%

21%

20%

19%

6%

25%

13%

15%

30%

3%

23%

30%

3%

9%

31%

38%

3%

12%

40%

<1%

11%

33%

2%

18%

Asian

2%

3%

<1%

6%

2%

<.5%

<1%

0%

0%

14%

2%

1%

0%

0%

7%

5%

3%

<.5%

6%

1%

<1%

1%

2%

3%

<1%

2%

<1%

4%

2%

<1%

1%

3%

3%

0%

2%

2%

0%

3%

2%

<.5%

8%

American Indian or Alaska Native

1%

3%

<.5%

<.5%

2%

2%

<.5%

0%

0%

13%

2%

1%

0%

0%

7%

4%

0%

2%

3%

1%

<1%

1%

1%

<.5%

2%

<1%

2%

0%

<1%

3%

0%

0%

<.5%

3%

<1%

2%

1%

1%

<1%

3%

1%

Middle Eastern or North African

<.5%

0%

<1%

2%

0%

<.5%

0%

0%

0%

3%

<.5%

<.5%

0%

0%

1%

1%

0%

0%

0%

2%

<.5%

0%

1%

<.5%

0%

<.5%

<.5%

1%

<.5%

<.5%

1%

0%

0%

0%

<.5%

<.5%

0%

<1%

0%

<.5%

2%

Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander

<1%

1%

<.5%

0%

2%

<.5%

<1%

0%

0%

6%

<1%

<1%

0%

0%

3%

2%

0%

<.5%

0%

4%

0%

0%

1%

0%

<.5%

0%

1%

0%

0%

<1%

0%

6%

0%

0%

1%

0%

1%

<1%

0%

1%

0%

[VOL] Some other race (specify)

1%

<1%

2%

<.5%

<1%

2%

<1%

<1%

0%

6%

2%

<.5%

1%

<1%

5%

<.5%

0%

2%

2%

0%

<1%

2%

2%

0%

1%

1%

<1%

9%

1%

<1%

6%

3%

2%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

1%

2%

<.5%

2%

[VOL] More than one race

2%

2%

3%

4%

2%

3%

2%

0%

0%

23%

3%

2%

0%

0%

11%

7%

2%

3%

<1%

<.5%

4%

2%

2%

3%

2%

1%

3%

8%

1%

3%

0%

6%

<1%

2%

4%

2%

1%

4%

2%

3%

<1%

[VOL] Refused

3%

3%

3%

0%

<.5%

3%

3%

0%

0%

0%

2%

3%

0%

0%

0%

0%

2%

3%

3%

3%

4%

3%

4%

3%

3%

3%

3%

3%

3%

4%

2%

2%

2%

3%

2%

3%

3%

3%

2%

3%

2%

Number of respondents

655

295

352

98

135

235

165

439

118

79

318

335

214

225

95

102

69

187

70

84

124

121

174

144

337

330

293

32

308

272

31

44

195

192

224

210

200

245

277

249

82

Percentage of total electorate

100%

46%

53%

14%

21%

33%

28%

69%

17%

11%

40%

60%

29%

40%

10%

18%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

19%

24%

22%

53%

49%

47%

4%

46%

44%

4%

6%

30%

32%

32%

33%

33%

35%

41%

41%

11%

Note: Responses to questions after this point are reported only for respondents who completed the entire questionnaire.

Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or a member of another party?

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Democrat

32%

25%

38%

33%

33%

32%

31%

21%

74%

31%

35%

30%

30%

15%

53%

62%

18%

34%

50%

32%

40%

19%

46%

26%

28%

62%

3%

4%

65%

3%

3%

4%

100%

0%

0%

81%

3%

14%

63%

3%

39%

Republican

31%

35%

28%

22%

23%

31%

41%

41%

2%

15%

21%

38%

26%

51%

8%

6%

46%

35%

17%

32%

17%

38%

20%

39%

33%

3%

62%

13%

2%

65%

14%

9%

0%

100%

0%

3%

78%

13%

2%

66%

15%

Independent

32%

35%

30%

35%

39%

35%

24%

34%

20%

38%

40%

27%

43%

29%

30%

24%

31%

26%

31%

27%

37%

41%

30%

32%

33%

31%

30%

71%

29%

28%

74%

73%

0%

0%

100%

14%

17%

63%

31%

27%

39%

Another party

2%

3%

2%

7%

3%

<.5%

2%

2%

2%

9%

3%

2%

1%

2%

7%

3%

<1%

1%

2%

6%

4%

<1%

3%

2%

3%

2%

2%

7%

2%

2%

2%

12%

0%

0%

0%

2%

<.5%

5%

2%

2%

4%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

2%

2%

2%

3%

2%

2%

2%

2%

1%

7%

1%

3%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

3%

0%

3%

2%

<1%

1%

2%

3%

2%

3%

5%

2%

2%

7%

3%

0%

0%

0%

<.5%

2%

4%

1%

3%

3%

Number of respondents

558

248

302

81

115

199

144

393

88

63

279

278

195

198

76

75

61

152

60

72

110

103

149

130

279

285

246

27

270

229

27

32

170

161

199

174

169

215

247

218

67

Percentage of total electorate

100%

45%

54%

14%

21%

34%

28%

70%

18%

10%

40%

60%

29%

42%

10%

17%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

18%

24%

23%

53%

49%

47%

4%

47%

44%

4%

4%

32%

31%

32%

32%

33%

35%

42%

43%

11%

(If independent, another party or not sure) And as of today, do you lean more to:

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

The Democratic Party

42%

35%

47%

65%

52%

26%

37%

43%

56%

28%

51%

34%

55%

32%

43%

38%

40%

32%

47%

29%

48%

52%

48%

50%

36%

88%

1%

4%

89%

0%

32%

13%

-

-

43%

83%

4%

43%

76%

3%

61%

The Republican Party

39%

43%

38%

27%

34%

48%

43%

43%

12%

44%

32%

46%

30%

54%

38%

24%

58%

43%

41%

53%

29%

28%

26%

41%

44%

3%

82%

17%

2%

87%

46%

11%

-

-

40%

0%

86%

36%

7%

80%

34%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

19%

23%

16%

8%

14%

25%

20%

14%

32%

29%

17%

20%

15%

14%

20%

38%

2%

24%

12%

17%

24%

20%

26%

9%

20%

9%

17%

79%

9%

13%

21%

76%

-

-

17%

17%

9%

22%

17%

17%

5%

Number of respondents

227

111

113

39

53

78

49

159

25

36

127

100

90

69

31

30

25

55

26

26

49

46

59

50

118

114

91

22

100

77

22

28

199

31

33

163

95

72

36

Percentage of total electorate

100%

49%

50%

17%

24%

34%

21%

72%

11%

15%

47%

53%

35%

37%

11%

15%

11%

23%

9%

13%

23%

21%

23%

22%

56%

47%

44%

9%

42%

38%

9%

10%

87%

14%

17%

69%

39%

36%

13%

Combined: Party identification and leaners

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

The Democratic Party

47%

39%

54%

62%

56%

42%

42%

38%

87%

46%

58%

41%

54%

26%

70%

74%

32%

44%

66%

43%

61%

41%

62%

43%

42%

93%

3%

7%

94%

3%

29%

15%

100%

0%

43%

94%

4%

45%

89%

4%

67%

The Republican Party

46%

52%

41%

35%

38%

49%

53%

57%

5%

39%

35%

53%

39%

69%

23%

14%

67%

49%

30%

51%

29%

50%

29%

53%

50%

4%

91%

28%

3%

93%

53%

19%

0%

100%

40%

3%

94%

39%

5%

91%

31%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

7%

9%

5%

4%

6%

10%

6%

5%

7%

16%

8%

7%

7%

4%

8%

12%

<1%

7%

4%

6%

10%

8%

9%

3%

8%

3%

6%

65%

3%

4%

18%

66%

0%

0%

17%

3%

2%

16%

6%

5%

2%

Number of respondents

558

248

302

81

115

199

144

393

88

63

279

278

195

198

76

75

61

152

60

72

110

103

149

130

279

285

246

27

270

229

27

32

170

161

199

174

169

215

247

218

67

Percentage of total electorate

100%

45%

54%

14%

21%

34%

28%

70%

18%

10%

40%

60%

29%

42%

10%

17%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

18%

24%

23%

53%

49%

47%

4%

47%

44%

4%

4%

32%

31%

32%

32%

33%

35%

42%

43%

11%

Who did you vote for in the 2020 presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, or did you not vote?

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Donald Trump

43%

45%

42%

20%

30%

49%

55%

54%

3%

32%

31%

51%

34%

68%

22%

8%

57%

47%

20%

48%

31%

50%

24%

46%

50%

3%

87%

5%

3%

89%

38%

13%

4%

90%

36%

7%

87%

34%

0%

100%

0%

Joe Biden

42%

38%

46%

28%

57%

38%

41%

34%

80%

32%

57%

32%

55%

20%

64%

61%

30%

40%

57%

36%

57%

33%

56%

41%

35%

79%

3%

37%

82%

2%

20%

36%

83%

3%

40%

83%

5%

38%

100%

0%

0%

I did not vote

11%

10%

10%

47%

8%

6%

2%

8%

12%

32%

6%

14%

5%

9%

10%

25%

13%

11%

17%

12%

4%

13%

11%

11%

11%

14%

7%

14%

14%

7%

24%

11%

13%

5%

13%

8%

6%

18%

0%

0%

100%

[VOL] Someone else

2%

4%

<1%

4%

4%

2%

0%

2%

1%

<1%

4%

1%

4%

2%

3%

0%

0%

2%

2%

<1%

3%

3%

3%

2%

2%

1%

2%

16%

1%

1%

7%

18%

0%

<.5%

5%

0%

<.5%

6%

0%

0%

0%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

2%

3%

2%

2%

<1%

4%

1%

2%

4%

3%

2%

2%

3%

1%

1%

5%

0%

1%

4%

4%

5%

1%

6%

0%

2%

2%

<1%

28%

1%

1%

11%

21%

0%

<.5%

6%

2%

<1%

4%

0%

0%

0%

Number of respondents

558

248

302

81

115

199

144

393

88

63

279

278

195

198

76

75

61

152

60

72

110

103

149

130

279

285

246

27

270

229

27

32

170

161

199

174

169

215

247

218

67

Percentage of total electorate

100%

45%

54%

14%

21%

34%

28%

70%

18%

10%

40%

60%

29%

42%

10%

17%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

18%

24%

23%

53%

49%

47%

4%

47%

44%

4%

4%

32%

31%

32%

32%

33%

35%

42%

43%

11%

(Excluding "I did not vote") Who did you vote for in the 2020 presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, or did you not vote?

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Donald Trump

48%

50%

46%

37%

33%

53%

56%

59%

4%

46%

33%

59%

36%

75%

24%

11%

66%

52%

24%

54%

32%

58%

27%

52%

56%

4%

94%

6%

3%

95%

50%

15%

5%

96%

41%

8%

93%

41%

0%

100%

-

Joe Biden

47%

42%

51%

52%

62%

41%

42%

37%

90%

47%

61%

37%

57%

22%

71%

82%

34%

44%

68%

41%

59%

38%

63%

46%

40%

93%

3%

44%

94%

2%

27%

41%

95%

3%

46%

90%

6%

47%

100%

0%

-

[VOL] Someone else

2%

4%

<1%

8%

4%

2%

0%

3%

1%

1%

4%

1%

4%

2%

4%

0%

0%

2%

3%

1%

4%

3%

4%

2%

2%

1%

2%

18%

1%

1%

9%

21%

0%

<.5%

5%

0%

<.5%

7%

0%

0%

-

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

3%

4%

2%

3%

<1%

5%

1%

2%

5%

5%

3%

3%

3%

1%

1%

7%

0%

1%

5%

4%

5%

2%

6%

0%

2%

2%

1%

33%

1%

1%

14%

24%

0%

<1%

7%

2%

<1%

5%

0%

0%

-

Number of respondents

491

218

270

45

102

184

141

360

77

42

260

230

185

175

68

51

52

131

52

63

103

90

132

114

245

249

223

19

240

210

17

24

150

150

169

159

156

176

247

218

Percentage of total electorate

100%

45%

54%

8%

21%

36%

31%

73%

17%

8%

42%

58%

30%

42%

10%

15%

11%

29%

9%

13%

21%

18%

24%

23%

53%

47%

49%

4%

46%

46%

4%

4%

31%

33%

31%

33%

34%

32%

47%

48%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Strongly approve

20%

19%

21%

4%

14%

22%

29%

15%

45%

14%

25%

16%

22%

10%

36%

33%

18%

24%

19%

12%

25%

14%

23%

20%

18%

40%

<.5%

0%

42%

0%

4%

0%

48%

<1%

11%

47%

2%

12%

44%

<.5%

10%

Somewhat approve

24%

21%

26%

35%

38%

19%

16%

21%

37%

27%

31%

20%

33%

12%

26%

37%

15%

17%

48%

24%

26%

26%

36%

21%

20%

46%

2%

27%

46%

1%

22%

28%

40%

4%

28%

37%

6%

30%

43%

3%

37%

Somewhat disapprove

10%

8%

11%

26%

10%

8%

5%

10%

7%

16%

9%

10%

9%

10%

9%

11%

11%

8%

10%

16%

7%

11%

9%

9%

11%

9%

9%

26%

8%

8%

41%

20%

6%

6%

16%

6%

9%

14%

9%

7%

22%

Strongly disapprove

45%

51%

40%

34%

35%

49%

50%

55%

6%

44%

34%

52%

35%

68%

27%

15%

56%

51%

23%

47%

36%

48%

32%

48%

50%

4%

88%

29%

4%

91%

33%

34%

5%

88%

42%

8%

83%

43%

4%

89%

30%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

1%

1%

1%

<.5%

2%

2%

0%

<1%

5%

0%

1%

1%

<1%

<.5%

2%

4%

0%

0%

0%

0%

6%

<1%

<.5%

2%

1%

<1%

<1%

18%

<1%

<1%

0%

18%

<1%

<1%

2%

2%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

NET Approve

44%

40%

47%

39%

52%

41%

45%

35%

81%

41%

56%

36%

55%

22%

61%

70%

33%

41%

67%

36%

51%

41%

59%

41%

38%

86%

2%

27%

88%

1%

26%

28%

88%

5%

39%

84%

7%

42%

87%

3%

47%

NET Disapprove

55%

59%

51%

60%

46%

57%

55%

64%

13%

59%

43%

62%

45%

78%

36%

26%

67%

59%

33%

64%

43%

58%

41%

57%

60%

13%

98%

55%

12%

98%

74%

54%

11%

94%

58%

15%

92%

57%

12%

96%

52%

Number of respondents

558

248

302

81

115

199

144

393

88

63

279

278

195

198

76

75

61

152

60

72

110

103

149

130

279

285

246

27

270

229

27

32

170

161

199

174

169

215

247

218

67

Percentage of total electorate

100%

45%

54%

14%

21%

34%

28%

70%

18%

10%

40%

60%

29%

42%

10%

17%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

18%

24%

23%

53%

49%

47%

4%

47%

44%

4%

4%

32%

31%

32%

32%

33%

35%

42%

43%

11%

Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of each of the following.

Donald Trump

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Very favorable

32%

34%

30%

17%

22%

35%

38%

40%

3%

25%

18%

41%

20%

53%

13%

9%

41%

37%

10%

33%

22%

39%

19%

32%

37%

<.5%

67%

0%

<1%

70%

9%

0%

5%

72%

20%

6%

66%

23%

<1%

70%

11%

Somewhat favorable

15%

17%

14%

18%

15%

16%

14%

17%

4%

19%

14%

15%

15%

18%

9%

9%

19%

14%

15%

21%

10%

15%

11%

16%

16%

2%

28%

14%

1%

26%

50%

15%

1%

20%

22%

2%

26%

17%

3%

25%

22%

Somewhat unfavorable

7%

9%

5%

13%

3%

8%

5%

4%

8%

22%

7%

7%

6%

4%

11%

14%

7%

6%

17%

9%

3%

5%

9%

8%

5%

7%

4%

42%

7%

4%

15%

35%

5%

4%

12%

5%

4%

11%

6%

4%

17%

Very unfavorable

46%

39%

50%

51%

59%

39%

42%

38%

84%

33%

60%

36%

59%

24%

65%

65%

33%

42%

58%

37%

63%

39%

61%

42%

40%

90%

<1%

33%

91%

0%

25%

38%

88%

3%

45%

86%

4%

47%

89%

1%

50%

[VOL] Have not heard of

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

<1%

1%

<1%

<.5%

<1%

2%

<.5%

<1%

2%

1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<.5%

2%

0%

1%

0%

0%

1%

2%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<.5%

10%

<1%

0%

1%

12%

<1%

0%

2%

<1%

0%

2%

1%

<1%

<1%

NET Favorable

47%

51%

43%

36%

38%

51%

52%

57%

6%

44%

32%

56%

35%

72%

23%

18%

60%

51%

25%

54%

32%

54%

29%

48%

54%

2%

95%

14%

2%

96%

59%

15%

6%

93%

41%

8%

92%

40%

4%

94%

33%

NET Unfavorable

52%

48%

56%

64%

62%

47%

47%

42%

92%

55%

67%

43%

64%

27%

77%

80%

40%

48%

75%

46%

66%

45%

70%

51%

45%

97%

4%

75%

98%

4%

39%

73%

93%

7%

57%

91%

8%

58%

95%

5%

66%

Number of respondents

558

248

302

81

115

199

144

393

88

63

279

278

195

198

76

75

61

152

60

72

110

103

149

130

279

285

246

27

270

229

27

32

170

161

199

174

169

215

247

218

67

Percentage of total electorate

100%

45%

54%

14%

21%

34%

28%

70%

18%

10%

40%

60%

29%

42%

10%

17%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

18%

24%

23%

53%

49%

47%

4%

47%

44%

4%

4%

32%

31%

32%

32%

33%

35%

42%

43%

11%

Kamala [COMMA-luh] Harris

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Very favorable

31%

26%

35%

23%

34%

31%

34%

23%

72%

21%

39%

26%

35%

15%

52%

54%

25%

35%

37%

26%

37%

23%

39%

27%

29%

63%

<1%

2%

65%

<1%

2%

2%

75%

2%

17%

70%

4%

21%

64%

2%

29%

Somewhat favorable

19%

17%

21%

39%

31%

12%

10%

18%

18%

31%

24%

16%

25%

13%

21%

24%

13%

11%

34%

20%

22%

24%

28%

20%

15%

33%

4%

27%

32%

4%

35%

28%

19%

6%

33%

20%

6%

31%

29%

5%

39%

Somewhat unfavorable

7%

5%

9%

9%

7%

9%

4%

8%

3%

13%

7%

7%

8%

7%

6%

7%

10%

8%

6%

9%

1%

9%

4%

5%

9%

1%

11%

29%

1%

10%

40%

12%

1%

10%

11%

1%

11%

9%

2%

10%

10%

Very unfavorable

40%

49%

32%

25%

26%

45%

48%

49%

7%

28%

29%

46%

31%

61%

21%

10%

49%

43%

20%

45%

35%

39%

28%

44%

43%

<1%

81%

32%

<.5%

82%

22%

47%

4%

79%

37%

8%

76%

35%

2%

80%

17%

[VOL] Have not heard of

<1%

<.5%

1%

0%

<.5%

0%

3%

1%

0%

0%

0%

1%

0%

2%

0%

0%

<1%

0%

0%

0%

0%

4%

0%

0%

2%

0%

2%

0%

0%

2%

0%

0%

0%

2%

0%

0%

2%

0%

0%

2%

<1%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

2%

2%

2%

5%

<1%

2%

2%

2%

<1%

7%

<1%

3%

<1%

2%

<.5%

5%

2%

2%

2%

0%

5%

<1%

<.5%

4%

2%

2%

2%

10%

2%

2%

1%

11%

1%

<1%

2%

<1%

<1%

5%

3%

1%

5%

NET Favorable

50%

43%

56%

61%

66%

43%

44%

41%

90%

52%

63%

42%

60%

27%

72%

78%

39%

46%

72%

46%

59%

47%

67%

47%

44%

96%

5%

29%

97%

5%

37%

30%

94%

8%

50%

90%

10%

52%

94%

7%

68%

NET Unfavorable

47%

55%

41%

34%

33%

54%

52%

57%

9%

41%

36%

53%

39%

68%

27%

17%

58%

52%

26%

54%

36%

48%

33%

49%

52%

2%

92%

61%

1%

92%

62%

59%

5%

89%

47%

9%

87%

43%

4%

91%

27%

Number of respondents

558

248

302

81

115

199

144

393

88

63

279

278

195

198

76

75

61

152

60

72

110

103

149

130

279

285

246

27

270

229

27

32

170

161

199

174

169

215

247

218

67

Percentage of total electorate

100%

45%

54%

14%

21%

34%

28%

70%

18%

10%

40%

60%

29%

42%

10%

17%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

18%

24%

23%

53%

49%

47%

4%

47%

44%

4%

4%

32%

31%

32%

32%

33%

35%

42%

43%

11%

JD Vance

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Very favorable

20%

21%

19%

11%

12%

19%

31%

24%

6%

20%

15%

23%

15%

30%

16%

9%

22%

28%

2%

25%

16%

18%

13%

21%

23%

3%

40%

0%

2%

41%

10%

5%

3%

45%

13%

5%

41%

14%

3%

43%

4%

Somewhat favorable

18%

24%

12%

22%

13%

24%

12%

21%

5%

19%

13%

21%

14%

25%

8%

12%

27%

16%

28%

15%

11%

18%

16%

17%

19%

3%

33%

24%

3%

32%

34%

21%

5%

28%

22%

4%

32%

16%

3%

33%

17%

Somewhat unfavorable

10%

9%

10%

9%

11%

9%

9%

9%

17%

7%

12%

8%

12%

6%

14%

13%

14%

9%

9%

14%

10%

7%

14%

10%

8%

15%

4%

14%

15%

4%

15%

13%

11%

4%

12%

13%

4%

12%

16%

4%

8%

Very unfavorable

36%

35%

38%

37%

47%

31%

34%

31%

61%

31%

48%

28%

48%

19%

51%

49%

22%

32%

53%

29%

47%

37%

47%

35%

32%

69%

3%

26%

71%

3%

8%

26%

72%

4%

34%

67%

5%

37%

69%

3%

36%

[VOL] Have not heard of

7%

5%

9%

8%

7%

8%

7%

8%

4%

8%

6%

8%

6%

10%

6%

5%

5%

6%

6%

15%

3%

11%

2%

7%

10%

4%

10%

15%

4%

10%

16%

15%

3%

10%

8%

4%

11%

7%

3%

9%

16%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

9%

7%

11%

12%

10%

8%

7%

8%

7%

15%

6%

11%

5%

10%

5%

12%

11%

9%

4%

3%

13%

9%

8%

11%

9%

6%

11%

21%

5%

11%

17%

21%

6%

9%

11%

6%

6%

14%

6%

8%

19%

NET Favorable

38%

45%

32%

34%

25%

43%

43%

44%

12%

39%

28%

44%

29%

55%

24%

21%

49%

44%

29%

40%

27%

36%

29%

38%

42%

6%

72%

24%

5%

73%

43%

26%

8%

73%

35%

10%

73%

31%

6%

75%

20%

NET Unfavorable

46%

44%

48%

45%

58%

41%

43%

40%

78%

38%

61%

36%

60%

26%

66%

62%

36%

40%

61%

43%

57%

44%

61%

45%

40%

84%

7%

40%

86%

7%

23%

39%

84%

8%

46%

80%

9%

49%

85%

7%

45%

Number of respondents

558

248

302

81

115

199

144

393

88

63

279

278

195

198

76

75

61

152

60

72

110

103

149

130

279

285

246

27

270

229

27

32

170

161

199

174

169

215

247

218

67

Percentage of total electorate

100%

45%

54%

14%

21%

34%

28%

70%

18%

10%

40%

60%

29%

42%

10%

17%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

18%

24%

23%

53%

49%

47%

4%

47%

44%

4%

4%

32%

31%

32%

32%

33%

35%

42%

43%

11%

Tim Walz [walls]

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Very favorable

27%

25%

29%

24%

35%

23%

28%

24%

44%

19%

37%

20%

38%

15%

37%

34%

21%

27%

31%

21%

33%

28%

32%

26%

26%

54%

2%

0%

55%

1%

15%

3%

56%

2%

23%

54%

3%

25%

55%

3%

21%

Somewhat favorable

16%

15%

17%

24%

21%

11%

13%

16%

13%

23%

15%

16%

16%

15%

15%

18%

15%

10%

21%

16%

21%

16%

20%

18%

13%

21%

10%

16%

22%

9%

19%

14%

17%

9%

21%

16%

12%

19%

22%

9%

21%

Somewhat unfavorable

11%

11%

10%

16%

11%

9%

9%

11%

12%

6%

8%

12%

8%

13%

9%

10%

13%

13%

10%

8%

6%

12%

7%

11%

12%

5%

16%

17%

4%

16%

18%

20%

7%

14%

11%

6%

16%

10%

3%

16%

11%

Very unfavorable

22%

28%

17%

8%

15%

24%

30%

26%

8%

21%

20%

24%

20%

30%

17%

10%

26%

23%

17%

28%

21%

19%

17%

26%

23%

2%

43%

24%

2%

44%

5%

32%

3%

45%

20%

6%

40%

20%

2%

45%

8%

[VOL] Have not heard of

13%

11%

16%

18%

9%

17%

11%

13%

15%

14%

12%

14%

12%

14%

13%

16%

8%

16%

7%

19%

10%

16%

13%

9%

16%

11%

15%

32%

10%

15%

26%

25%

11%

18%

12%

12%

17%

12%

10%

14%

20%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

11%

11%

11%

11%

9%

15%

7%

10%

7%

18%

7%

13%

6%

13%

9%

12%

17%

10%

14%

8%

9%

9%

12%

10%

10%

7%

14%

10%

7%

14%

17%

6%

6%

12%

13%

6%

12%

14%

7%

13%

18%

NET Favorable

43%

39%

46%

47%

56%

35%

41%

40%

57%

42%

53%

36%

54%

30%

52%

52%

36%

37%

52%

37%

55%

44%

52%

44%

39%

75%

12%

16%

77%

10%

34%

17%

73%

11%

44%

70%

14%

44%

77%

12%

43%

NET Unfavorable

33%

39%

27%

24%

26%

33%

40%

37%

20%

27%

28%

36%

28%

43%

26%

20%

40%

37%

27%

36%

26%

31%

24%

37%

36%

7%

59%

41%

7%

60%

23%

52%

10%

59%

31%

12%

56%

30%

6%

61%

19%

Number of respondents

558

248

302

81

115

199

144

393

88

63

279

278

195

198

76

75

61

152

60

72

110

103

149

130

279

285

246

27

270

229

27

32

170

161

199

174

169

215

247

218

67

Percentage of total electorate

100%

45%

54%

14%

21%

34%

28%

70%

18%

10%

40%

60%

29%

42%

10%

17%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

18%

24%

23%

53%

49%

47%

4%

47%

44%

4%

4%

32%

31%

32%

32%

33%

35%

42%

43%

11%

How much attention are you paying to the upcoming presidential election?

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

A lot

65%

69%

61%

45%

59%

66%

77%

65%

71%

58%

69%

62%

69%

62%

72%

63%

74%

68%

61%

58%

65%

61%

60%

70%

65%

66%

63%

61%

68%

65%

37%

53%

73%

63%

58%

70%

65%

59%

73%

67%

29%

Some

26%

23%

29%

39%

33%

23%

19%

27%

22%

26%

25%

28%

26%

28%

20%

26%

18%

26%

29%

30%

25%

29%

30%

21%

27%

27%

26%

23%

26%

25%

42%

32%

23%

31%

28%

25%

26%

27%

22%

25%

49%

Not much

6%

5%

7%

11%

6%

9%

2%

5%

6%

15%

4%

8%

3%

7%

7%

10%

4%

4%

10%

9%

8%

6%

8%

5%

6%

5%

8%

13%

5%

7%

8%

12%

4%

3%

10%

4%

4%

11%

6%

5%

15%

None at all

2%

3%

2%

5%

2%

3%

1%

3%

<1%

<1%

2%

3%

2%

4%

2%

<.5%

4%

1%

0%

3%

1%

5%

1%

5%

2%

2%

3%

3%

1%

3%

13%

3%

<1%

3%

4%

<1%

4%

2%

0%

3%

7%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

Number of respondents

558

248

302

81

115

199

144

393

88

63

279

278

195

198

76

75

61

152

60

72

110

103

149

130

279

285

246

27

270

229

27

32

170

161

199

174

169

215

247

218

67

Percentage of total electorate

100%

45%

54%

14%

21%

34%

28%

70%

18%

10%

40%

60%

29%

42%

10%

17%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

18%

24%

23%

53%

49%

47%

4%

47%

44%

4%

4%

32%

31%

32%

32%

33%

35%

42%

43%

11%

And when it comes to the November election, would you say you’re very enthusiastic about voting, somewhat enthusiastic about voting, not very enthusiastic about voting or not at all enthusiastic about voting?

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Very enthusiastic

63%

65%

63%

39%

61%

66%

72%

64%

67%

47%

64%

63%

62%

65%

68%

55%

65%

62%

65%

56%

66%

65%

67%

61%

62%

65%

65%

23%

67%

68%

14%

26%

75%

68%

49%

75%

66%

50%

69%

67%

38%

Somewhat enthusiastic

24%

22%

26%

45%

27%

22%

15%

23%

26%

35%

22%

25%

24%

22%

17%

36%

23%

22%

27%

28%

26%

22%

25%

28%

22%

28%

21%

20%

28%

20%

29%

16%

25%

18%

30%

21%

19%

31%

24%

19%

43%

Not very enthusiastic

8%

8%

8%

11%

8%

6%

10%

10%

3%

10%

8%

9%

8%

11%

7%

5%

9%

10%

6%

12%

5%

7%

5%

8%

10%

4%

11%

27%

4%

9%

35%

31%

<1%

10%

12%

2%

12%

10%

5%

11%

13%

Not at all enthusiastic

4%

6%

3%

5%

4%

5%

3%

4%

4%

9%

6%

3%

6%

2%

7%

4%

3%

5%

2%

5%

1%

5%

3%

3%

5%

2%

4%

26%

2%

3%

22%

20%

<.5%

3%

7%

1%

3%

7%

2%

4%

5%

[VOL] Don’t know/Refused

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

0%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

0%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

0%

<.5%

0%

0%

0%

0%

<1%

<1%

<1%

0%

<.5%

<.5%

0%

6%

0%

0%

0%

7%

0%

0%

<1%

0%

0%

<1%

<.5%

0%

<1%

NET Enthusiastic

87%

86%

89%

83%

88%

88%

87%

86%

93%

81%

86%

88%

86%

86%

86%

91%

87%

84%

92%

83%

92%

87%

92%

89%

85%

93%

85%

42%

95%

88%

42%

42%

99%

86%

80%

96%

85%

82%

93%

85%

81%

NET Not enthusiastic

12%

14%

11%

16%

12%

11%

13%

13%

6%

19%

14%

12%

13%

13%

14%

9%

13%

16%

8%

17%

7%

12%

8%

11%

15%

7%

15%

52%

5%

12%

58%

51%

<1%

14%

19%

4%

15%

18%

7%

15%

18%

Number of respondents

558

248

302

81

115

199

144

393

88

63

279

278

195

198

76

75

61

152

60

72

110

103

149

130

279

285

246

27

270

229

27

32

170

161

199

174

169

215

247

218

67

Percentage of total electorate

100%

45%

54%

14%

21%

34%

28%

70%

18%

10%

40%

60%

29%

42%

10%

17%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

18%

24%

23%

53%

49%

47%

4%

47%

44%

4%

4%

32%

31%

32%

32%

33%

35%

42%

43%

11%

In general, how satisfied are you with your choice of candidates in this fall’s presidential election?

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Very satisfied

43%

46%

40%

15%

36%

47%

55%

42%

54%

32%

42%

44%

39%

45%

53%

43%

30%

51%

35%

44%

43%

43%

48%

35%

44%

48%

42%

5%

50%

44%

0%

8%

59%

50%

23%

60%

44%

27%

52%

45%

18%

Somewhat satisfied

36%

32%

40%

56%

44%

28%

32%

38%

27%

36%

34%

38%

37%

39%

25%

33%

51%

29%

45%

24%

37%

41%

32%

45%

34%

40%

34%

9%

40%

34%

43%

9%

34%

32%

44%

28%

34%

46%

33%

35%

50%

Not too satisfied

11%

11%

12%

19%

12%

13%

5%

11%

8%

20%

12%

11%

11%

11%

14%

12%

12%

8%

10%

18%

10%

13%

12%

13%

10%

6%

14%

36%

6%

14%

18%

32%

4%

11%

18%

4%

15%

14%

9%

11%

23%

Not at all satisfied

7%

10%

6%

8%

9%

10%

3%

8%

7%

8%

12%

4%

13%

4%

8%

6%

4%

8%

9%

14%

7%

4%

8%

6%

8%

4%

7%

48%

3%

6%

38%

48%

1%

4%

15%

6%

6%

10%

4%

6%

8%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

2%

2%

2%

<.5%

0%

2%

5%

1%

4%

4%

<1%

3%

<1%

1%

0%

6%

3%

4%

0%

0%

3%

0%

<1%

1%

3%

1%

3%

2%

1%

3%

0%

4%

2%

3%

<.5%

2%

<1%

3%

1%

3%

<1%

NET Satisfied

79%

78%

80%

72%

80%

75%

87%

80%

81%

68%

76%

82%

76%

84%

78%

76%

81%

80%

80%

68%

80%

84%

80%

80%

79%

88%

76%

14%

90%

78%

43%

17%

93%

82%

66%

88%

77%

73%

85%

80%

68%

NET Not satisfied

19%

20%

18%

28%

20%

23%

8%

18%

15%

28%

23%

16%

24%

15%

22%

18%

17%

16%

20%

32%

17%

16%

20%

19%

18%

11%

22%

84%

9%

20%

57%

80%

5%

16%

33%

10%

22%

24%

13%

17%

31%

Number of respondents

558

248

302

81

115

199

144

393

88

63

279

278

195

198

76

75

61

152

60

72

110

103

149

130

279

285

246

27

270

229

27

32

170

161

199

174

169

215

247

218

67

Percentage of total electorate

100%

45%

54%

14%

21%

34%

28%

70%

18%

10%

40%

60%

29%

42%

10%

17%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

18%

24%

23%

53%

49%

47%

4%

47%

44%

4%

4%

32%

31%

32%

32%

33%

35%

42%

43%

11%

Do you think Donald Trump is too conservative, not conservative enough, or not too far either way?

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Too conservative

37%

32%

41%

69%

48%

27%

29%

36%

47%

38%

48%

30%

51%

25%

42%

45%

31%

33%

48%

26%

47%

41%

48%

37%

33%

62%

12%

33%

62%

12%

44%

27%

55%

16%

40%

54%

19%

40%

61%

11%

51%

Not conservative enough

8%

8%

8%

4%

10%

8%

8%

7%

7%

11%

6%

9%

6%

8%

7%

9%

13%

7%

10%

10%

6%

5%

8%

9%

7%

7%

9%

2%

7%

7%

18%

11%

9%

5%

9%

6%

8%

9%

7%

8%

9%

Not too far either way

44%

50%

39%

21%

38%

53%

45%

48%

29%

41%

35%

49%

33%

57%

38%

30%

49%

46%

28%

53%

34%

48%

29%

48%

49%

15%

73%

48%

15%

75%

31%

46%

16%

75%

43%

23%

69%

39%

15%

75%

29%

[VOL] Don’t know/Refused

11%

10%

12%

5%

4%

12%

18%

9%

17%

10%

11%

11%

9%

9%

13%

16%

7%

13%

14%

12%

13%

6%

14%

7%

11%

16%

5%

16%

16%

6%

6%

17%

19%

4%

8%

17%

3%

13%

17%

6%

11%

Number of respondents

558

248

302

81

115

199

144

393

88

63

279

278

195

198

76

75

61

152

60

72

110

103

149

130

279

285

246

27

270

229

27

32

170

161

199

174

169

215

247

218

67

Percentage of total electorate

100%

45%

54%

14%

21%

34%

28%

70%

18%

10%

40%

60%

29%

42%

10%

17%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

18%

24%

23%

53%

49%

47%

4%

47%

44%

4%

4%

32%

31%

32%

32%

33%

35%

42%

43%

11%

Do you think Kamala Harris is too liberal or progressive, not liberal or progressive enough, or not too far either way?

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Too liberal or progressive

44%

52%

38%

36%

39%

44%

51%

52%

13%

43%

35%

50%

39%

62%

24%

24%

51%

55%

32%

49%

26%

47%

31%

43%

51%

8%

83%

36%

7%

83%

58%

37%

9%

81%

45%

13%

80%

40%

11%

82%

27%

Not liberal or progressive enough

7%

7%

7%

18%

5%

8%

<1%

7%

6%

8%

7%

7%

8%

6%

4%

8%

5%

2%

13%

9%

8%

9%

10%

10%

4%

11%

2%

8%

11%

1%

14%

7%

10%

2%

6%

8%

3%

9%

10%

2%

10%

Not too far either way

44%

38%

49%

43%

55%

39%

44%

38%

76%

37%

56%

36%

52%

28%

69%

57%

41%

39%

52%

33%

61%

40%

54%

42%

41%

79%

9%

31%

80%

9%

27%

32%

78%

12%

44%

77%

11%

45%

77%

10%

55%

[VOL] Don’t know/Refused

5%

3%

6%

3%

<1%

9%

4%

3%

5%

13%

2%

7%

1%

5%

3%

10%

4%

4%

2%

9%

4%

5%

5%

5%

5%

2%

6%

25%

2%

6%

1%

24%

4%

5%

5%

2%

6%

6%

3%

6%

8%

Number of respondents

558

248

302

81

115

199

144

393

88

63

279

278

195

198

76

75

61

152

60

72

110

103

149

130

279

285

246

27

270

229

27

32

170

161

199

174

169

215

247

218

67

Percentage of total electorate

100%

45%

54%

14%

21%

34%

28%

70%

18%

10%

40%

60%

29%

42%

10%

17%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

18%

24%

23%

53%

49%

47%

4%

47%

44%

4%

4%

32%

31%

32%

32%

33%

35%

42%

43%

11%

If Donald Trump won the election, do you think nothing would change, there would be minor changes to how things work, there would be major changes to how things work, or he would tear down the system completely?

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Nothing would change

<1%

1%

<.5%

<.5%

1%

0%

1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<.5%

1%

<1%

0%

1%

2%

0%

<.5%

0%

<.5%

2%

<.5%

<.5%

<1%

8%

0%

<1%

1%

8%

0%

2%

<.5%

0%

1%

<1%

<.5%

<.5%

2%

Minor changes to how things work

14%

19%

10%

21%

16%

16%

6%

14%

10%

17%

17%

12%

18%

12%

15%

12%

19%

11%

16%

16%

16%

12%

12%

15%

14%

7%

19%

42%

6%

17%

32%

48%

5%

16%

21%

6%

16%

19%

6%

16%

23%

Major changes to how things work

49%

46%

51%

51%

43%

47%

53%

56%

26%

40%

40%

55%

44%

65%

29%

32%

48%

55%

36%

51%

43%

53%

44%

50%

51%

26%

74%

33%

26%

76%

44%

27%

23%

72%

54%

26%

72%

50%

25%

76%

41%

He would tear down the system completely

36%

33%

38%

26%

39%

36%

39%

28%

63%

40%

41%

32%

37%

22%

55%

54%

30%

33%

46%

32%

41%

35%

44%

30%

34%

66%

6%

14%

67%

5%

23%

15%

72%

10%

24%

68%

10%

29%

68%

7%

33%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

<1%

<1%

<1%

2%

0%

<1%

<.5%

<1%

0%

2%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

0%

<1%

4%

0%

0%

1%

<.5%

0%

<.5%

3%

0%

<1%

<1%

2%

<1%

<1%

0%

2%

0%

<.5%

<1%

0%

<.5%

1%

1%

<.5%

0%

Number of respondents

558

248

302

81

115

199

144

393

88

63

279

278

195

198

76

75

61

152

60

72

110

103

149

130

279

285

246

27

270

229

27

32

170

161

199

174

169

215

247

218

67

Percentage of total electorate

100%

45%

54%

14%

21%

34%

28%

70%

18%

10%

40%

60%

29%

42%

10%

17%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

18%

24%

23%

53%

49%

47%

4%

47%

44%

4%

4%

32%

31%

32%

32%

33%

35%

42%

43%

11%

(If Trump major/minor change or tear down the system) Do you think the changes that Donald Trump would make would be good for the country or bad for the country, or neither good nor bad?

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Very good for the country

35%

39%

33%

18%

21%

43%

43%

44%

4%

29%

22%

44%

23%

58%

18%

10%

38%

37%

20%

42%

26%

44%

23%

38%

40%

1%

74%

0%

1%

78%

4%

6%

4%

77%

26%

6%

74%

27%

1%

77%

11%

Somewhat good for the country

9%

10%

9%

10%

11%

9%

8%

11%

<1%

15%

10%

8%

12%

10%

5%

6%

15%

12%

7%

8%

5%

7%

8%

8%

10%

2%

16%

14%

2%

16%

20%

4%

2%

13%

13%

2%

14%

11%

2%

15%

12%

Somewhat bad for the country

5%

4%

7%

18%

10%

<.5%

2%

4%

7%

13%

6%

5%

5%

3%

8%

10%

0%

6%

8%

8%

7%

4%

4%

4%

7%

9%

<1%

12%

10%

<1%

7%

8%

8%

0%

8%

7%

0%

9%

8%

<1%

13%

Very bad for the country

40%

36%

42%

36%

48%

36%

41%

32%

74%

34%

53%

31%

51%

19%

62%

58%

28%

35%

56%

33%

52%

38%

57%

37%

33%

80%

<.5%

8%

81%

<.5%

21%

8%

83%

2%

34%

78%

3%

39%

81%

1%

40%

Neither good nor bad

8%

8%

8%

14%

8%

9%

4%

8%

10%

7%

6%

10%

6%

9%

3%

12%

14%

8%

4%

7%

9%

5%

5%

9%

9%

6%

7%

43%

5%

4%

46%

50%

3%

5%

15%

7%

8%

9%

5%

6%

20%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

1%

1%

0%

<.5%

3%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<.5%

<1%

2%

2%

0%

<1%

2%

<1%

<.5%

2%

2%

0%

<1%

<1%

0%

12%

<1%

0%

0%

13%

<.5%

0%

2%

<1%

0%

2%

<1%

0%

2%

[PREVIOUSLY] Nothing would change

<1%

1%

<.5%

<.5%

1%

0%

1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<.5%

1%

<1%

0%

1%

2%

0%

<.5%

0%

<.5%

2%

<.5%

<.5%

<1%

8%

0%

<1%

1%

8%

0%

2%

<.5%

0%

1%

<1%

<.5%

<.5%

2%

[PREVIOUSLY] Don’t know/Refused

<1%

<1%

<1%

2%

0%

<1%

<.5%

<1%

0%

2%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

0%

<1%

4%

0%

0%

1%

<.5%

0%

<.5%

3%

0%

<1%

<1%

2%

<1%

<1%

0%

2%

0%

<.5%

<1%

0%

<.5%

1%

1%

<.5%

0%

NET Good

45%

49%

41%

29%

32%

52%

52%

54%

5%

44%

33%

52%

36%

67%

23%

16%

54%

49%

27%

51%

31%

51%

31%

46%

50%

3%

90%

14%

3%

94%

24%

10%

6%

91%

39%

8%

87%

38%

3%

92%

23%

NET Bad

45%

40%

49%

54%

58%

37%

43%

36%

81%

47%

59%

36%

56%

22%

70%

68%

28%

40%

64%

41%

59%

42%

61%

41%

40%

90%

1%

20%

91%

<1%

28%

17%

91%

2%

43%

85%

3%

48%

89%

2%

53%

Number of respondents

558

248

302

81

115

199

144

393

88

63

279

278

195

198

76

75

61

152

60

72

110

103

149

130

279

285

246

27

270

229

27

32

170

161

199

174

169

215

247

218

67

Percentage of total electorate

100%

45%

54%

14%

21%

34%

28%

70%

18%

10%

40%

60%

29%

42%

10%

17%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

18%

24%

23%

53%

49%

47%

4%

47%

44%

4%

4%

32%

31%

32%

32%

33%

35%

42%

43%

11%

If Kamala Harris won the election, do you think nothing would change, there would be minor changes to how things work, there would be major changes to how things work, or she would tear down the system completely?

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Nothing would change

12%

14%

11%

9%

15%

13%

10%

14%

5%

11%

12%

12%

13%

15%

10%

6%

7%

15%

13%

13%

8%

14%

9%

9%

15%

5%

18%

30%

4%

18%

25%

27%

1%

15%

21%

2%

17%

17%

7%

17%

10%

Minor changes to how things work

43%

41%

45%

64%

48%

37%

36%

40%

52%

46%

53%

36%

53%

30%

55%

47%

35%

35%

58%

44%

55%

38%

55%

40%

38%

69%

15%

50%

70%

14%

45%

45%

64%

17%

46%

62%

17%

48%

66%

15%

53%

Major changes to how things work

19%

17%

20%

16%

25%

15%

19%

14%

39%

18%

18%

20%

17%

12%

21%

37%

16%

22%

18%

19%

19%

16%

20%

20%

18%

24%

14%

15%

24%

14%

12%

18%

29%

15%

12%

27%

17%

13%

24%

15%

20%

She would tear down the system completely

23%

28%

20%

11%

12%

31%

27%

30%

3%

12%

15%

28%

16%

39%

12%

3%

41%

25%

9%

17%

14%

31%

11%

30%

26%

<1%

48%

0%

<.5%

50%

19%

3%

4%

48%

19%

6%

48%

15%

1%

48%

14%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

3%

1%

5%

<.5%

0%

4%

7%

2%

1%

13%

1%

5%

<1%

3%

2%

8%

2%

3%

3%

7%

5%

<1%

5%

2%

3%

2%

5%

6%

2%

5%

0%

7%

2%

5%

2%

2%

2%

6%

2%

5%

3%

Number of respondents

558

248

302

81

115

199

144

393

88

63

279

278

195

198

76

75

61

152

60

72

110

103

149

130

279

285

246

27

270

229

27

32

170

161

199

174

169

215

247

218

67

Percentage of total electorate

100%

45%

54%

14%

21%

34%

28%

70%

18%

10%

40%

60%

29%

42%

10%

17%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

18%

24%

23%

53%

49%

47%

4%

47%

44%

4%

4%

32%

31%

32%

32%

33%

35%

42%

43%

11%

(If Harris major/minor change or tear down the system) Do you think the changes that Kamala Harris would make would be good for the country or bad for the country, or neither good nor bad?

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Very good for the country

25%

18%

29%

16%

27%

25%

28%

18%

56%

16%

30%

21%

27%

11%

37%

44%

14%

28%

35%

22%

24%

22%

34%

20%

22%

50%

<1%

0%

51%

<1%

4%

2%

59%

1%

15%

60%

2%

13%

52%

<1%

21%

Somewhat good for the country

16%

16%

17%

24%

27%

9%

15%

15%

23%

20%

20%

14%

20%

11%

22%

21%

10%

11%

27%

14%

25%

14%

20%

18%

14%

32%

1%

1%

33%

<1%

10%

2%

29%

<.5%

20%

22%

1%

25%

28%

2%

27%

Somewhat bad for the country

5%

7%

4%

14%

6%

4%

2%

6%

0%

9%

5%

5%

7%

6%

2%

4%

8%

6%

5%

2%

4%

5%

4%

7%

4%

0%

9%

22%

0%

8%

11%

21%

0%

10%

5%

0%

11%

5%

<1%

9%

6%

Very bad for the country

29%

35%

26%

17%

20%

33%

35%

38%

3%

17%

21%

35%

22%

48%

16%

3%

43%

30%

11%

27%

24%

38%

15%

37%

33%

<.5%

62%

2%

0%

64%

15%

5%

4%

63%

23%

6%

62%

21%

2%

62%

16%

Neither good nor bad

8%

9%

8%

19%

5%

11%

2%

7%

11%

14%

10%

8%

9%

6%

11%

13%

14%

6%

5%

15%

11%

4%

12%

8%

7%

11%

4%

37%

9%

3%

32%

35%

5%

5%

13%

7%

6%

12%

7%

4%

18%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

<1%

<1%

<1%

0%

0%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

0%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

0%

<1%

1%

<1%

1%

0%

0%

1%

<.5%

<.5%

<1%

1%

<.5%

3%

<1%

<.5%

3%

2%

0%

<1%

<1%

0%

<.5%

2%

<1%

<1%

0%

[PREVIOUSLY] Nothing would change

12%

14%

11%

9%

15%

13%

10%

14%

5%

11%

12%

12%

13%

15%

10%

6%

7%

15%

13%

13%

8%

14%

9%

9%

15%

5%

18%

30%

4%

18%

25%

27%

1%

15%

21%

2%

17%

17%

7%

17%

10%

[PREVIOUSLY] Don’t know/Refused

3%

1%

5%

<.5%

0%

4%

7%

2%

1%

13%

1%

5%

<1%

3%

2%

8%

2%

3%

3%

7%

5%

<1%

5%

2%

3%

2%

5%

6%

2%

5%

0%

7%

2%

5%

2%

2%

2%

6%

2%

5%

3%

NET Good

41%

34%

46%

40%

53%

33%

42%

32%

79%

36%

50%

35%

48%

22%

59%

66%

24%

39%

62%

36%

49%

37%

54%

37%

36%

81%

2%

1%

84%

1%

14%

4%

88%

2%

34%

82%

3%

38%

80%

3%

48%

NET Bad

35%

41%

30%

31%

27%

37%

37%

44%

3%

26%

26%

40%

29%

54%

18%

7%

52%

36%

17%

29%

27%

43%

20%

44%

37%

<.5%

71%

24%

0%

73%

26%

25%

4%

73%

28%

6%

72%

26%

2%

70%

21%

Number of respondents

558

248

302

81

115

199

144

393

88

63

279

278

195

198

76

75

61

152

60

72

110

103

149

130

279

285

246

27

270

229

27

32

170

161

199

174

169

215

247

218

67

Percentage of total electorate

100%

45%

54%

14%

21%

34%

28%

70%

18%

10%

40%

60%

29%

42%

10%

17%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

18%

24%

23%

53%

49%

47%

4%

47%

44%

4%

4%

32%

31%

32%

32%

33%

35%

42%

43%

11%

For each of the following, please tell me if this describes Kamala Harris very well, somewhat well, not too well or not at all well:

Will bring about the right kind of change

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Very well

32%

25%

38%

26%

40%

30%

32%

24%

68%

23%

38%

28%

35%

17%

47%

54%

25%

34%

42%

21%

36%

31%

38%

30%

30%

64%

1%

0%

66%

1%

4%

<1%

74%

2%

23%

72%

2%

23%

66%

1%

34%

Somewhat well

18%

16%

20%

38%

20%

15%

12%

16%

20%

33%

23%

15%

23%

11%

26%

24%

17%

11%

29%

18%

26%

17%

29%

18%

13%

31%

4%

23%

30%

3%

29%

32%

20%

6%

26%

17%

7%

30%

26%

5%

38%

Not too well

9%

11%

7%

17%

7%

9%

6%

10%

2%

10%

8%

10%

9%

11%

2%

6%

11%

10%

4%

10%

7%

10%

8%

5%

11%

1%

14%

31%

1%

14%

30%

16%

1%

17%

8%

1%

16%

9%

2%

13%

12%

Not at all well

39%

45%

34%

17%

32%

43%

48%

49%

7%

26%

29%

45%

31%

61%

23%

8%

46%

44%

22%

47%

28%

42%

22%

45%

44%

<1%

79%

33%

<1%

80%

31%

38%

4%

74%

40%

8%

74%

35%

2%

80%

15%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

2%

2%

2%

2%

<1%

3%

3%

<1%

3%

8%

2%

2%

2%

0%

2%

7%

2%

2%

3%

4%

3%

0%

3%

2%

2%

2%

1%

14%

1%

1%

6%

14%

1%

1%

3%

2%

1%

3%

3%

1%

<1%

NET Well

50%

41%

57%

63%

61%

45%

44%

40%

88%

56%

61%

43%

58%

29%

73%

78%

41%

45%

71%

39%

62%

49%

66%

49%

43%

96%

6%

23%

97%

5%

33%

33%

94%

8%

49%

89%

9%

53%

92%

6%

72%

NET Not well

48%

57%

41%

34%

39%

52%

53%

59%

9%

36%

37%

55%

40%

71%

25%

15%

56%

53%

25%

58%

35%

51%

31%

49%

55%

2%

93%

64%

2%

94%

61%

53%

5%

91%

48%

9%

90%

44%

4%

93%

27%

Number of respondents

558

248

302

81

115

199

144

393

88

63

279

278

195

198

76

75

61

152

60

72

110

103

149

130

279

285

246

27

270

229

27

32

170

161

199

174

169

215

247

218

67

Percentage of total electorate

100%

45%

54%

14%

21%

34%

28%

70%

18%

10%

40%

60%

29%

42%

10%

17%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

18%

24%

23%

53%

49%

47%

4%

47%

44%

4%

4%

32%

31%

32%

32%

33%

35%

42%

43%

11%

Can unify the country

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Very well

23%

18%

27%

16%

24%

22%

27%

15%

61%

16%

27%

21%

23%

9%

40%

47%

17%

27%

29%

18%

23%

21%

28%

19%

23%

46%

2%

0%

47%

1%

9%

2%

57%

2%

12%

54%

3%

14%

49%

1%

18%

Somewhat well

24%

23%

25%

36%

35%

19%

17%

22%

25%

36%

31%

20%

30%

17%

33%

27%

24%

18%

38%

21%

32%

19%

32%

28%

19%

44%

2%

33%

43%

2%

31%

35%

34%

5%

31%

32%

5%

34%

40%

4%

40%

Not too well

11%

12%

11%

26%

7%

8%

10%

12%

6%

14%

10%

11%

13%

10%

4%

12%

11%

9%

11%

13%

12%

11%

16%

9%

10%

6%

14%

29%

6%

14%

26%

18%

5%

16%

12%

4%

16%

12%

6%

13%

17%

Not at all well

41%

48%

34%

22%

34%

47%

45%

51%

7%

27%

31%

47%

33%

63%

21%

11%

47%

45%

22%

46%

30%

47%

23%

43%

47%

2%

81%

33%

2%

82%

33%

40%

4%

77%

42%

8%

76%

37%

3%

80%

25%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

2%

0%

3%

0%

0%

3%

<.5%

<1%

<.5%

7%

1%

2%

<1%

<.5%

1%

4%

2%

<1%

0%

2%

3%

1%

<1%

1%

2%

1%

1%

4%

2%

1%

0%

4%

<1%

0%

2%

1%

<1%

3%

2%

2%

0%

NET Well

47%

40%

52%

52%

59%

41%

45%

37%

86%

52%

58%

40%

53%

26%

73%

74%

40%

45%

67%

39%

55%

41%

60%

47%

41%

90%

4%

33%

90%

3%

41%

37%

90%

7%

43%

86%

8%

48%

89%

6%

58%

NET Not well

51%

60%

45%

48%

41%

56%

55%

62%

14%

41%

41%

58%

47%

73%

25%

23%

58%

54%

33%

59%

42%

58%

39%

52%

57%

9%

95%

62%

8%

96%

59%

59%

9%

93%

55%

12%

92%

50%

9%

93%

42%

Number of respondents

558

248

302

81

115

199

144

393

88

63

279

278

195

198

76

75

61

152

60

72

110

103

149

130

279

285

246

27

270

229

27

32

170

161

199

174

169

215

247

218

67

Percentage of total electorate

100%

45%

54%

14%

21%

34%

28%

70%

18%

10%

40%

60%

29%

42%

10%

17%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

18%

24%

23%

53%

49%

47%

4%

47%

44%

4%

4%

32%

31%

32%

32%

33%

35%

42%

43%

11%

Cares about people like you

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Very well

35%

25%

42%

34%

41%

33%

35%

27%

72%

26%

46%

28%

42%

16%

58%

54%

30%

34%

49%

26%

47%

26%

46%

33%

30%

70%

2%

0%

71%

1%

17%

4%

76%

3%

28%

72%

5%

29%

72%

3%

31%

Somewhat well

16%

21%

13%

34%

21%

12%

10%

16%

13%

26%

19%

14%

19%

14%

19%

17%

13%

13%

24%

19%

17%

17%

22%

16%

14%

23%

9%

21%

23%

8%

13%

26%

19%

9%

20%

16%

8%

24%

20%

7%

33%

Not too well

11%

11%

11%

11%

14%

8%

12%

13%

3%

10%

6%

14%

8%

16%

<.5%

8%

12%

12%

2%

13%

5%

18%

6%

5%

15%

3%

18%

29%

2%

17%

29%

17%

1%

18%

13%

2%

20%

10%

3%

18%

10%

Not at all well

35%

41%

30%

19%

24%

41%

41%

43%

7%

26%

27%

40%

29%

53%

21%

10%

43%

39%

22%

41%

27%

36%

23%

41%

38%

2%

70%

31%

1%

71%

36%

35%

3%

68%

34%

8%

65%

32%

2%

70%

20%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

3%

2%

4%

2%

0%

5%

3%

1%

4%

11%

2%

4%

2%

<1%

2%

10%

2%

3%

4%

1%

4%

3%

3%

4%

2%

2%

2%

19%

2%

3%

4%

19%

1%

2%

4%

1%

1%

5%

3%

2%

6%

NET Well

51%

46%

55%

67%

62%

45%

45%

43%

86%

52%

65%

42%

61%

30%

77%

71%

42%

47%

73%

45%

64%

43%

68%

49%

44%

93%

11%

21%

95%

9%

30%

29%

94%

12%

48%

88%

13%

53%

92%

10%

65%

NET Not well

46%

52%

41%

31%

38%

50%

52%

56%

10%

36%

33%

54%

37%

69%

21%

18%

55%

51%

23%

54%

32%

54%

29%

47%

53%

5%

87%

60%

4%

88%

66%

52%

4%

87%

47%

11%

86%

41%

5%

88%

30%

Number of respondents

558

248

302

81

115

199

144

393

88

63

279

278

195

198

76

75

61

152

60

72

110

103

149

130

279

285

246

27

270

229

27

32

170

161

199

174

169

215

247

218

67

Percentage of total electorate

100%

45%

54%

14%

21%

34%

28%

70%

18%

10%

40%

60%

29%

42%

10%

17%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

18%

24%

23%

53%

49%

47%

4%

47%

44%

4%

4%

32%

31%

32%

32%

33%

35%

42%

43%

11%

Is qualified

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Very well

42%

35%

47%

51%

47%

38%

38%

31%

83%

44%

51%

36%

46%

21%

66%

70%

33%

40%

55%

38%

50%

35%

56%

38%

37%

82%

2%

14%

84%

1%

23%

18%

88%

2%

35%

82%

4%

40%

83%

1%

50%

Somewhat well

13%

13%

13%

20%

16%

9%

12%

13%

9%

16%

15%

12%

16%

12%

10%

13%

17%

8%

21%

16%

13%

13%

13%

17%

11%

14%

10%

32%

13%

10%

16%

34%

8%

10%

21%

9%

12%

18%

12%

11%

27%

Not too well

8%

8%

8%

14%

7%

8%

8%

10%

4%

7%

8%

9%

10%

10%

3%

6%

3%

12%

1%

5%

10%

10%

8%

6%

10%

1%

14%

30%

1%

13%

31%

16%

2%

16%

7%

2%

13%

10%

1%

13%

7%

Not at all well

36%

44%

30%

15%

30%

43%

41%

45%

4%

27%

27%

42%

28%

57%

20%

8%

48%

38%

23%

41%

24%

42%

22%

39%

41%

1%

74%

20%

1%

75%

29%

29%

2%

72%

36%

7%

71%

31%

3%

74%

16%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

<1%

<.5%

1%

0%

0%

2%

<1%

<.5%

0%

6%

<.5%

1%

<.5%

<.5%

0%

4%

0%

<1%

0%

0%

3%

0%

<1%

0%

1%

<.5%

<1%

4%

<.5%

<1%

0%

4%

0%

0%

1%

<1%

0%

2%

<1%

<1%

<1%

NET Well

55%

48%

60%

70%

63%

47%

51%

45%

92%

60%

66%

48%

62%

33%

77%

82%

49%

48%

76%

54%

63%

48%

69%

55%

48%

97%

12%

46%

97%

11%

39%

52%

96%

12%

56%

91%

16%

58%

95%

12%

77%

NET Not well

45%

52%

39%

30%

37%

51%

49%

55%

8%

34%

34%

51%

38%

67%

23%

14%

51%

51%

24%

46%

34%

52%

30%

45%

51%

3%

87%

50%

2%

88%

61%

45%

4%

88%

43%

8%

84%

41%

4%

87%

23%

Number of respondents

558

248

302

81

115

199

144

393

88

63

279

278

195

198

76

75

61

152

60

72

110

103

149

130

279

285

246

27

270

229

27

32

170

161

199

174

169

215

247

218

67

Percentage of total electorate

100%

45%

54%

14%

21%

34%

28%

70%

18%

10%

40%

60%

29%

42%

10%

17%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

18%

24%

23%

53%

49%

47%

4%

47%

44%

4%

4%

32%

31%

32%

32%

33%

35%

42%

43%

11%

Flip-flops on issues that matter

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Very well

32%

35%

28%

22%

24%

36%

36%

34%

27%

27%

23%

37%

24%

40%

21%

30%

30%

35%

28%

39%

25%

30%

24%

32%

35%

16%

48%

25%

16%

48%

36%

31%

18%

47%

29%

19%

46%

30%

15%

49%

28%

Somewhat well

18%

21%

16%

31%

24%

16%

12%

17%

15%

37%

19%

18%

18%

16%

24%

22%

27%

16%

22%

19%

14%

19%

19%

21%

17%

21%

15%

17%

20%

15%

32%

16%

19%

13%

23%

15%

14%

26%

17%

16%

31%

Not too well

16%

13%

18%

25%

15%

14%

14%

16%

15%

16%

18%

14%

19%

14%

13%

17%

15%

14%

12%

19%

18%

15%

19%

13%

15%

21%

11%

11%

21%

11%

17%

6%

18%

9%

20%

19%

10%

18%

21%

9%

22%

Not at all well

29%

27%

31%

17%

32%

27%

34%

29%

39%

10%

36%

25%

34%

25%

38%

23%

21%

32%

31%

17%

39%

27%

33%

30%

27%

37%

21%

23%

38%

21%

9%

29%

42%

24%

23%

43%

24%

21%

41%

21%

13%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

5%

4%

7%

5%

5%

7%

5%

5%

4%

11%

4%

6%

5%

6%

3%

8%

8%

2%

6%

6%

4%

9%

6%

5%

5%

5%

4%

24%

5%

5%

6%

18%

3%

6%

5%

5%

6%

5%

5%

5%

6%

NET Well

50%

56%

44%

53%

49%

52%

48%

50%

42%

64%

42%

55%

42%

56%

45%

52%

57%

51%

50%

58%

39%

49%

43%

53%

52%

37%

64%

42%

36%

63%

68%

48%

37%

61%

52%

34%

60%

56%

32%

65%

59%

NET Not well

45%

40%

49%

42%

47%

41%

47%

44%

55%

26%

53%

39%

53%

38%

52%

40%

35%

47%

43%

35%

57%

42%

51%

42%

42%

58%

32%

34%

59%

32%

26%

34%

60%

33%

43%

62%

34%

39%

63%

30%

35%

Number of respondents

558

248

302

81

115

199

144

393

88

63

279

278

195

198

76

75

61

152

60

72

110

103

149

130

279

285

246

27

270

229

27

32

170

161

199

174

169

215

247

218

67

Percentage of total electorate

100%

45%

54%

14%

21%

34%

28%

70%

18%

10%

40%

60%

29%

42%

10%

17%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

18%

24%

23%

53%

49%

47%

4%

47%

44%

4%

4%

32%

31%

32%

32%

33%

35%

42%

43%

11%

Is a strong leader

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Very well

35%

29%

40%

33%

43%

32%

34%

28%

70%

26%

43%

30%

41%

19%

49%

57%

28%

35%

44%

26%

42%

34%

41%

32%

33%

69%

2%

2%

71%

2%

13%

<1%

76%

3%

28%

71%

4%

31%

70%

2%

41%

Somewhat well

15%

14%

15%

27%

17%

13%

10%

12%

17%

33%

17%

14%

16%

9%

21%

24%

11%

11%

29%

17%

16%

13%

25%

15%

10%

25%

5%

17%

25%

4%

16%

25%

18%

5%

21%

17%

5%

23%

21%

3%

33%

Not too well

10%

9%

11%

17%

5%

9%

11%

11%

4%

10%

8%

11%

9%

13%

4%

7%

10%

12%

5%

13%

8%

9%

11%

3%

12%

2%

17%

28%

1%

15%

34%

23%

2%

15%

10%

3%

17%

9%

2%

17%

9%

Not at all well

38%

46%

32%

20%

32%

43%

44%

48%

7%

25%

30%

43%

32%

58%

22%

8%

49%

41%

20%

43%

30%

42%

21%

46%

42%

3%

75%

35%

2%

77%

36%

33%

2%

76%

39%

7%

73%

34%

3%

77%

16%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

2%

2%

3%

3%

2%

3%

2%

1%

3%

7%

3%

2%

2%

<1%

4%

4%

3%

1%

2%

1%

4%

2%

1%

3%

2%

2%

1%

18%

2%

1%

0%

18%

<1%

1%

2%

2%

1%

3%

3%

1%

<1%

NET Well

50%

43%

55%

60%

61%

45%

44%

40%

87%

59%

60%

44%

57%

28%

70%

81%

39%

46%

73%

43%

58%

47%

66%

48%

44%

94%

7%

19%

96%

6%

30%

26%

94%

7%

49%

88%

9%

54%

91%

5%

74%

NET Not well

48%

55%

43%

37%

37%

52%

54%

59%

11%

35%

38%

54%

41%

71%

26%

15%

58%

53%

25%

56%

38%

51%

33%

49%

54%

4%

92%

63%

3%

93%

70%

56%

5%

91%

49%

10%

90%

43%

5%

94%

25%

Number of respondents

558

248

302

81

115

199

144

393

88

63

279

278

195

198

76

75

61

152

60

72

110

103

149

130

279

285

246

27

270

229

27

32

170

161

199

174

169

215

247

218

67

Percentage of total electorate

100%

45%

54%

14%

21%

34%

28%

70%

18%

10%

40%

60%

29%

42%

10%

17%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

18%

24%

23%

53%

49%

47%

4%

47%

44%

4%

4%

32%

31%

32%

32%

33%

35%

42%

43%

11%

For each of the following, please tell me if this describes Donald Trump very well, somewhat well, not too well or not at all well:

Will bring about the right kind of change

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Very well

34%

37%

31%

20%

21%

40%

41%

41%

3%

33%

21%

42%

21%

55%

18%

12%

39%

38%

16%

35%

26%

41%

22%

35%

39%

<1%

71%

0%

<1%

74%

4%

8%

3%

78%

22%

5%

72%

24%

1%

72%

16%

Somewhat well

14%

16%

12%

14%

16%

13%

11%

16%

2%

16%

14%

13%

17%

15%

7%

7%

21%

12%

13%

20%

9%

12%

10%

16%

14%

3%

24%

27%

3%

22%

40%

22%

3%

17%

20%

3%

21%

17%

3%

22%

15%

Not too well

9%

8%

9%

24%

8%

6%

6%

7%

12%

14%

7%

9%

7%

7%

9%

15%

5%

8%

15%

9%

11%

5%

9%

7%

9%

13%

3%

22%

11%

2%

36%

22%

9%

3%

15%

9%

4%

13%

9%

3%

26%

Not at all well

43%

38%

46%

41%

53%

39%

41%

35%

80%

32%

57%

33%

54%

21%

65%

61%

33%

41%

53%

36%

53%

39%

56%

41%

37%

82%

1%

45%

84%

<1%

20%

36%

84%

2%

40%

82%

3%

43%

85%

2%

38%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

2%

1%

2%

<1%

2%

2%

1%

<1%

3%

5%

<1%

2%

<.5%

1%

1%

5%

2%

<1%

3%

1%

<1%

4%

2%

<1%

2%

1%

1%

6%

1%

1%

0%

11%

<1%

0%

3%

1%

0%

3%

1%

1%

5%

NET Well

47%

53%

43%

35%

38%

53%

52%

57%

5%

49%

35%

55%

38%

70%

24%

19%

60%

50%

29%

54%

35%

53%

32%

51%

53%

4%

94%

27%

3%

96%

44%

30%

6%

95%

42%

8%

93%

41%

5%

94%

31%

NET Not well

51%

46%

55%

65%

61%

45%

47%

42%

92%

47%

64%

43%

61%

28%

75%

76%

38%

49%

69%

45%

64%

43%

66%

48%

46%

95%

4%

67%

96%

3%

56%

59%

93%

5%

55%

91%

7%

56%

94%

5%

64%

Number of respondents

558

248

302

81

115

199

144

393

88

63

279

278

195

198

76

75

61

152

60

72

110

103

149

130

279

285

246

27

270

229

27

32

170

161

199

174

169

215

247

218

67

Percentage of total electorate

100%

45%

54%

14%

21%

34%

28%

70%

18%

10%

40%

60%

29%

42%

10%

17%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

18%

24%

23%

53%

49%

47%

4%

47%

44%

4%

4%

32%

31%

32%

32%

33%

35%

42%

43%

11%

Can unify the country

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Very well

21%

23%

19%

18%

6%

23%

30%

27%

2%

14%

7%

30%

8%

39%

2%

8%

29%

22%

7%

26%

13%

27%

13%

24%

24%

<.5%

44%

0%

<.5%

47%

4%

0%

3%

51%

11%

5%

45%

13%

1%

44%

15%

Somewhat well

18%

21%

17%

16%

18%

21%

17%

21%

4%

24%

16%

20%

16%

25%

13%

10%

20%

19%

16%

18%

15%

22%

14%

19%

21%

4%

34%

7%

4%

35%

16%

16%

5%

31%

19%

4%

33%

19%

3%

35%

15%

Not too well

11%

10%

12%

17%

12%

9%

11%

9%

18%

15%

11%

11%

12%

8%

11%

20%

11%

12%

13%

14%

14%

5%

10%

9%

13%

9%

11%

37%

8%

10%

37%

34%

8%

9%

16%

10%

12%

12%

9%

11%

15%

Not at all well

49%

46%

51%

49%

63%

47%

41%

42%

76%

45%

65%

38%

63%

28%

73%

60%

40%

47%

61%

41%

57%

46%

61%

48%

43%

86%

10%

54%

87%

9%

43%

48%

82%

9%

54%

80%

10%

56%

86%

10%

53%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

<1%

<.5%

<1%

0%

0%

0%

1%

<.5%

<1%

3%

<1%

<.5%

<.5%

0%

1%

2%

0%

0%

3%

1%

<.5%

0%

2%

0%

0%

<1%

0%

2%

<1%

0%

0%

2%

1%

0%

<.5%

1%

0%

<.5%

<.5%

0%

2%

NET Well

40%

44%

36%

34%

24%

44%

47%

48%

5%

38%

23%

51%

25%

64%

15%

18%

49%

41%

23%

44%

28%

49%

27%

43%

44%

4%

79%

7%

4%

81%

20%

16%

8%

82%

30%

9%

78%

32%

4%

79%

30%

NET Not well

60%

55%

64%

66%

76%

56%

52%

52%

94%

60%

77%

49%

75%

36%

84%

80%

51%

59%

74%

55%

72%

51%

71%

57%

56%

95%

21%

91%

95%

19%

80%

82%

90%

18%

70%

90%

22%

68%

95%

21%

68%

Number of respondents

558

248

302

81

115

199

144

393

88

63

279

278

195

198

76

75

61

152

60

72

110

103

149

130

279

285

246

27

270

229

27

32

170

161

199

174

169

215

247

218

67

Percentage of total electorate

100%

45%

54%

14%

21%

34%

28%

70%

18%

10%

40%

60%

29%

42%

10%

17%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

18%

24%

23%

53%

49%

47%

4%

47%

44%

4%

4%

32%

31%

32%

32%

33%

35%

42%

43%

11%

Cares about people like you

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Very well

34%

38%

30%

20%

24%

36%

42%

42%

3%

27%

21%

42%

23%

55%

15%

10%

47%

38%

14%

34%

24%

39%

22%

37%

37%

1%

70%

4%

1%

73%

8%

5%

4%

74%

24%

6%

69%

26%

2%

72%

16%

Somewhat well

14%

14%

13%

20%

15%

15%

8%

15%

6%

17%

12%

15%

15%

16%

4%

14%

14%

15%

13%

17%

11%

13%

10%

13%

15%

5%

22%

15%

5%

21%

27%

20%

6%

16%

20%

5%

17%

18%

4%

20%

17%

Not too well

9%

9%

9%

16%

9%

6%

10%

8%

14%

10%

9%

9%

9%

7%

12%

13%

8%

6%

19%

14%

9%

4%

9%

11%

8%

12%

5%

28%

11%

3%

27%

27%

8%

6%

11%

7%

9%

11%

9%

5%

20%

Not at all well

43%

38%

47%

43%

52%

42%

39%

35%

75%

45%

57%

34%

53%

22%

68%

62%

30%

40%

54%

34%

55%

43%

58%

39%

38%

81%

3%

49%

82%

2%

36%

44%

81%

4%

45%

81%

5%

44%

84%

3%

42%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

<1%

1%

<.5%

1%

0%

<1%

<1%

<.5%

2%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<.5%

<1%

2%

0%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<.5%

<1%

1%

0%

<1%

<1%

0%

4%

<1%

0%

2%

4%

<1%

0%

1%

1%

0%

<1%

<.5%

0%

4%

NET Well

47%

52%

44%

40%

39%

51%

50%

57%

9%

44%

33%

57%

37%

70%

19%

23%

62%

52%

26%

51%

35%

52%

32%

50%

53%

7%

92%

19%

6%

94%

35%

25%

10%

90%

44%

11%

86%

44%

6%

92%

33%

NET Not well

52%

47%

56%

59%

61%

48%

49%

43%

89%

55%

66%

43%

62%

29%

80%

75%

38%

47%

73%

48%

65%

47%

67%

50%

46%

92%

8%

77%

93%

6%

63%

71%

89%

10%

55%

88%

14%

55%

93%

8%

63%

Number of respondents

558

248

302

81

115

199

144

393

88

63

279

278

195

198

76

75

61

152

60

72

110

103

149

130

279

285

246

27

270

229

27

32

170

161

199

174

169

215

247

218

67

Percentage of total electorate

100%

45%

54%

14%

21%

34%

28%

70%

18%

10%

40%

60%

29%

42%

10%

17%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

18%

24%

23%

53%

49%

47%

4%

47%

44%

4%

4%

32%

31%

32%

32%

33%

35%

42%

43%

11%

Is qualified

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Very well

38%

41%

37%

21%

30%

43%

46%

48%

2%

31%

26%

46%

29%

61%

17%

10%

49%

43%

21%

40%

28%

45%

22%

42%

45%

1%

80%

0%

1%

83%

25%

4%

4%

84%

29%

6%

79%

31%

2%

82%

18%

Somewhat well

12%

14%

10%

20%

11%

13%

7%

12%

7%

17%

11%

13%

12%

13%

8%

13%

17%

11%

7%

17%

10%

12%

16%

12%

10%

7%

16%

27%

6%

14%

24%

37%

3%

10%

23%

3%

13%

18%

5%

13%

26%

Not too well

8%

8%

7%

17%

9%

5%

7%

7%

11%

7%

11%

6%

8%

6%

19%

4%

6%

10%

11%

9%

6%

5%

7%

5%

9%

10%

3%

28%

9%

2%

34%

23%

7%

4%

11%

8%

6%

9%

9%

3%

15%

Not at all well

41%

36%

45%

42%

51%

38%

39%

32%

78%

45%

51%

35%

50%

19%

56%

71%

28%

36%

59%

34%

56%

38%

54%

41%

36%

81%

<1%

38%

83%

<1%

18%

30%

85%

1%

37%

81%

2%

41%

84%

<1%

39%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

<1%

<1%

<.5%

0%

0%

<1%

1%

<.5%

2%

0%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<.5%

0%

2%

0%

<1%

1%

0%

<1%

0%

1%

0%

<1%

<1%

0%

7%

<1%

0%

0%

7%

<1%

<.5%

<.5%

<1%

<.5%

<.5%

0%

<.5%

3%

NET Well

50%

55%

47%

41%

41%

56%

54%

61%

10%

49%

37%

59%

41%

74%

25%

23%

66%

53%

28%

57%

38%

57%

38%

54%

55%

8%

96%

27%

8%

97%

49%

41%

8%

94%

51%

10%

92%

49%

8%

95%

43%

NET Not well

49%

44%

53%

59%

59%

43%

45%

39%

89%

51%

62%

41%

58%

26%

75%

75%

34%

46%

70%

43%

61%

43%

61%

46%

45%

91%

4%

66%

92%

3%

51%

52%

91%

6%

48%

89%

8%

51%

92%

4%

54%

Number of respondents

558

248

302

81

115

199

144

393

88

63

279

278

195

198

76

75

61

152

60

72

110

103

149

130

279

285

246

27

270

229

27

32

170

161

199

174

169

215

247

218

67

Percentage of total electorate

100%

45%

54%

14%

21%

34%

28%

70%

18%

10%

40%

60%

29%

42%

10%

17%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

18%

24%

23%

53%

49%

47%

4%

47%

44%

4%

4%

32%

31%

32%

32%

33%

35%

42%

43%

11%

Flip-flops on issues that matter

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Very well

32%

27%

36%

30%

41%

27%

35%

31%

42%

22%

39%

28%

40%

26%

38%

33%

31%

30%

34%

29%

38%

31%

41%

35%

27%

49%

16%

10%

50%

16%

26%

8%

46%

19%

31%

47%

19%

31%

51%

16%

35%

Somewhat well

17%

16%

18%

25%

20%

17%

10%

16%

11%

33%

16%

17%

17%

14%

13%

22%

21%

14%

19%

19%

17%

16%

19%

18%

16%

17%

16%

35%

15%

14%

37%

43%

13%

10%

26%

12%

12%

25%

16%

13%

25%

Not too well

11%

12%

11%

19%

10%

10%

11%

11%

11%

13%

12%

11%

12%

11%

12%

12%

7%

11%

16%

7%

12%

13%

11%

13%

11%

10%

12%

14%

10%

12%

10%

14%

11%

12%

11%

11%

12%

11%

9%

12%

16%

Not at all well

37%

43%

32%

23%

28%

45%

39%

38%

35%

31%

31%

41%

29%

45%

35%

33%

39%

42%

28%

42%

32%

36%

27%

32%

44%

22%

53%

35%

23%

54%

27%

29%

29%

55%

29%

30%

51%

30%

22%

55%

23%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

3%

2%

3%

2%

1%

2%

4%

3%

<1%

<1%

2%

3%

2%

4%

2%

0%

2%

2%

3%

3%

1%

4%

3%

2%

3%

2%

3%

6%

2%

3%

0%

6%

<1%

4%

3%

<1%

5%

2%

2%

4%

1%

NET Well

49%

43%

54%

55%

61%

43%

45%

47%

53%

55%

56%

45%

57%

40%

51%

55%

52%

44%

53%

48%

55%

47%

59%

53%

42%

66%

32%

44%

65%

30%

63%

51%

60%

29%

57%

59%

32%

56%

67%

29%

59%

NET Not well

48%

55%

43%

42%

38%

54%

50%

50%

46%

44%

43%

52%

41%

55%

47%

45%

46%

54%

44%

49%

43%

49%

38%

45%

55%

33%

65%

50%

33%

66%

37%

44%

40%

67%

40%

41%

64%

41%

32%

67%

39%

Number of respondents

558

248

302

81

115

199

144

393

88

63

279

278

195

198

76

75

61

152

60

72

110

103

149

130

279

285

246

27

270

229

27

32

170

161

199

174

169

215

247

218

67

Percentage of total electorate

100%

45%

54%

14%

21%

34%

28%

70%

18%

10%

40%

60%

29%

42%

10%

17%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

18%

24%

23%

53%

49%

47%

4%

47%

44%

4%

4%

32%

31%

32%

32%

33%

35%

42%

43%

11%

Is a strong leader

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Very well

43%

47%

40%

41%

28%

49%

46%

53%

7%

34%

31%

51%

33%

67%

26%

12%

53%

46%

26%

47%

33%

50%

27%

41%

51%

7%

85%

0%

5%

88%

28%

11%

7%

85%

38%

9%

82%

38%

6%

86%

27%

Somewhat well

15%

16%

15%

19%

25%

12%

10%

15%

12%

21%

17%

14%

18%

14%

14%

15%

17%

14%

14%

20%

14%

13%

16%

20%

13%

16%

13%

32%

15%

10%

42%

34%

9%

10%

26%

12%

12%

22%

15%

11%

29%

Not too well

9%

10%

7%

18%

9%

8%

6%

6%

13%

20%

9%

8%

9%

5%

12%

17%

4%

6%

12%

8%

10%

12%

10%

9%

8%

14%

<1%

33%

14%

<1%

15%

26%

14%

2%

10%

13%

2%

10%

13%

<1%

19%

Not at all well

33%

27%

37%

22%

38%

30%

38%

25%

68%

24%

42%

27%

40%

15%

48%

55%

24%

34%

48%

25%

42%

25%

46%

30%

28%

64%

<1%

33%

65%

<1%

14%

27%

69%

3%

26%

66%

4%

30%

66%

2%

24%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

<.5%

0%

<1%

0%

0%

<1%

<.5%

<.5%

0%

2%

<.5%

<.5%

<1%

0%

0%

<1%

2%

0%

0%

<1%

<.5%

0%

<1%

<1%

0%

<.5%

<.5%

2%

<.5%

<.5%

0%

2%

<.5%

0%

<1%

<.5%

0%

<1%

<1%

0%

0%

NET Well

58%

63%

55%

60%

53%

61%

56%

68%

19%

55%

48%

64%

51%

80%

40%

27%

70%

60%

40%

66%

47%

63%

44%

61%

64%

22%

98%

32%

21%

98%

71%

45%

16%

95%

63%

20%

94%

59%

21%

97%

56%

NET Not well

42%

37%

44%

40%

47%

38%

44%

31%

81%

44%

51%

35%

48%

20%

60%

72%

28%

40%

60%

33%

53%

37%

56%

39%

36%

78%

2%

66%

79%

2%

29%

53%

83%

5%

36%

79%

6%

40%

79%

3%

44%

Number of respondents

558

248

302

81

115

199

144

393

88

63

279

278

195

198

76

75

61

152

60

72

110

103

149

130

279

285

246

27

270

229

27

32

170

161

199

174

169

215

247

218

67

Percentage of total electorate

100%

45%

54%

14%

21%

34%

28%

70%

18%

10%

40%

60%

29%

42%

10%

17%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

18%

24%

23%

53%

49%

47%

4%

47%

44%

4%

4%

32%

31%

32%

32%

33%

35%

42%

43%

11%

What one issue is most important in deciding your vote this November?

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

[VOL] The economy (including jobs and the stock market)

22%

29%

17%

15%

19%

29%

19%

26%

5%

27%

25%

20%

27%

25%

21%

8%

25%

22%

19%

18%

22%

25%

17%

22%

25%

9%

38%

6%

8%

38%

21%

11%

5%

38%

24%

8%

36%

23%

10%

36%

13%

[VOL] Inflation and the cost of living

5%

5%

5%

6%

5%

6%

2%

4%

5%

5%

5%

4%

4%

5%

7%

4%

0%

4%

2%

8%

5%

7%

4%

4%

5%

3%

6%

14%

3%

5%

21%

7%

3%

5%

5%

3%

6%

4%

4%

6%

2%

[VOL] Abortion

16%

4%

25%

24%

26%

12%

11%

13%

24%

15%

21%

12%

22%

7%

19%

22%

15%

14%

34%

7%

18%

12%

23%

17%

12%

31%

<1%

3%

32%

<1%

3%

5%

31%

3%

13%

31%

2%

14%

29%

2%

24%

[VOL] Immigration

12%

13%

12%

4%

12%

13%

17%

16%

3%

8%

5%

17%

5%

23%

7%

4%

14%

17%

4%

14%

5%

16%

4%

15%

15%

2%

25%

3%

2%

26%

0%

4%

4%

24%

11%

4%

23%

10%

2%

25%

8%

[VOL] Crime

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

[VOL] Gun policies

<1%

1%

<1%

1%

2%

0%

1%

<1%

1%

0%

1%

<1%

1%

<1%

2%

0%

0%

2%

0%

0%

1%

<1%

<1%

0%

1%

<.5%

1%

5%

<.5%

1%

0%

5%

<.5%

1%

0%

<.5%

<1%

1%

<.5%

<1%

0%

[VOL] Health care

2%

<1%

3%

<1%

2%

<1%

4%

3%

0%

0%

1%

3%

1%

4%

0%

0%

0%

2%

0%

5%

1%

2%

1%

<1%

3%

1%

3%

0%

<1%

2%

18%

0%

<.5%

1%

5%

<1%

4%

1%

1%

3%

0%

[VOL] Education

<1%

<.5%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

0%

<1%

<1%

0%

1%

<.5%

1%

<.5%

1%

0%

<1%

<1%

0%

<1%

1%

0%

1%

<.5%

<.5%

1%

<.5%

0%

1%

<.5%

0%

0%

1%

0%

<.5%

<1%

<.5%

<1%

1%

0%

<1%

[VOL] Foreign policy

5%

4%

4%

7%

4%

4%

4%

5%

4%

6%

3%

5%

3%

6%

6%

4%

3%

6%

<1%

7%

3%

5%

3%

4%

6%

2%

7%

4%

2%

8%

5%

7%

2%

8%

4%

2%

6%

6%

2%

7%

5%

[VOL] Russia/the war in Ukraine

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

[VOL] China

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

[VOL] Climate change

<1%

<1%

<1%

0%

2%

<.5%

<1%

1%

0%

0%

2%

0%

3%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

1%

2%

1%

<.5%

1%

<1%

2%

0%

0%

2%

0%

0%

0%

2%

0%

<.5%

<1%

<.5%

<1%

2%

0%

0%

[VOL] The state of democracy/corruption

7%

9%

5%

1%

8%

6%

9%

7%

9%

5%

12%

3%

12%

3%

10%

5%

5%

4%

10%

5%

10%

8%

7%

6%

7%

12%

1%

5%

13%

1%

5%

0%

9%

0%

11%

8%

1%

10%

13%

1%

0%

[VOL] Election integrity

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

0%

0%

<.5%

<1%

<.5%

0%

0%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

0%

0%

2%

0%

0%

<1%

0%

0%

<.5%

0%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

0%

<.5%

<.5%

0%

0%

<.5%

<1%

0%

<.5%

<1%

0%

<.5%

<.5%

0%

[VOL] Equality/inequality

4%

4%

5%

12%

4%

4%

2%

3%

7%

9%

5%

4%

4%

2%

9%

7%

5%

4%

1%

7%

5%

4%

6%

5%

3%

7%

<1%

9%

7%

<1%

5%

8%

7%

<.5%

5%

6%

<.5%

6%

7%

1%

9%

[VOL] Polarization/division

3%

3%

3%

1%

<1%

2%

7%

3%

6%

0%

2%

4%

3%

3%

2%

5%

0%

5%

6%

4%

2%

<1%

5%

2%

3%

5%

<.5%

9%

5%

<.5%

8%

6%

7%

1%

2%

5%

1%

3%

6%

<.5%

5%

[VOL] Racism/racial issues

<1%

1%

<.5%

0%

0%

2%

<1%

0%

3%

3%

<.5%

1%

0%

0%

1%

4%

0%

<.5%

2%

1%

2%

0%

3%

0%

<.5%

1%

<.5%

5%

1%

<.5%

0%

5%

2%

0%

<1%

<1%

0%

1%

1%

0%

3%

[VOL] Dislike of opposing candidate

3%

4%

2%

0%

<1%

5%

4%

4%

1%

0%

3%

3%

3%

4%

2%

0%

5%

3%

<1%

3%

3%

4%

4%

0%

4%

4%

3%

0%

3%

3%

3%

0%

4%

3%

2%

4%

3%

3%

3%

3%

1%

[VOL] Character/competence of candidate

8%

9%

6%

7%

7%

6%

10%

7%

15%

1%

5%

9%

5%

8%

5%

12%

8%

7%

2%

6%

12%

8%

4%

9%

9%

8%

6%

15%

8%

7%

0%

17%

9%

6%

7%

11%

8%

4%

7%

6%

9%

[VOL] The Middle East/Israel/Palestinians

<1%

<.5%

1%

4%

0%

<.5%

0%

<.5%

<1%

4%

1%

<1%

<.5%

<.5%

2%

2%

0%

<.5%

2%

3%

<1%

0%

3%

<1%

0%

1%

<.5%

3%

1%

0%

0%

6%

<1%

0%

<1%

<1%

0%

2%

<1%

0%

3%

[VOL] Taxes

<1%

<1%

<.5%

3%

<.5%

0%

0%

<.5%

0%

3%

<.5%

<1%

<.5%

<.5%

0%

1%

2%

<1%

1%

0%

0%

0%

1%

<1%

<.5%

<.5%

<1%

0%

<.5%

<.5%

5%

1%

0%

<1%

1%

0%

0%

2%

<.5%

<1%

0%

[VOL] Student loans

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

0%

0%

<1%

0%

0%

2%

0%

<.5%

<.5%

0%

0%

1%

1%

<1%

0%

0%

0%

1%

0%

0%

<1%

<.5%

<1%

0%

0%

<1%

0%

0%

0%

<1%

0%

0%

<1%

0%

0%

<1%

0%

0%

[VOL] Other (specify)

6%

6%

6%

4%

6%

7%

7%

5%

10%

6%

4%

8%

4%

6%

2%

12%

12%

5%

13%

7%

2%

5%

10%

6%

5%

8%

5%

5%

8%

5%

4%

6%

9%

6%

4%

10%

6%

4%

7%

6%

7%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

2%

2%

3%

8%

<1%

2%

1%

1%

4%

8%

1%

3%

<.5%

2%

2%

7%

2%

4%

2%

1%

3%

<1%

2%

4%

2%

2%

1%

14%

2%

1%

1%

13%

3%

<1%

3%

2%

<.5%

4%

3%

<.5%

9%

Number of respondents

558

248

302

81

115

199

144

393

88

63

279

278

195

198

76

75

61

152

60

72

110

103

149

130

279

285

246

27

270

229

27

32

170

161

199

174

169

215

247

218

67

Percentage of total electorate

100%

45%

54%

14%

21%

34%

28%

70%

18%

10%

40%

60%

29%

42%

10%

17%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

18%

24%

23%

53%

49%

47%

4%

47%

44%

4%

4%

32%

31%

32%

32%

33%

35%

42%

43%

11%

Which candidate do you think would do a better job of handling the issue you think is most important?

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Kamala [COMMA-luh] Harris, the Democrat

48%

40%

54%

59%

57%

41%

45%

39%

87%

45%

58%

41%

56%

27%

67%

74%

38%

45%

67%

42%

60%

38%

63%

47%

41%

96%

2%

7%

97%

0%

38%

11%

94%

3%

45%

89%

6%

49%

91%

3%

65%

Donald Trump, the Republican

48%

54%

43%

33%

40%

53%

53%

58%

7%

47%

38%

54%

40%

70%

31%

16%

61%

50%

28%

54%

35%

56%

32%

50%

54%

3%

97%

22%

2%

99%

33%

27%

6%

94%

45%

8%

91%

44%

5%

95%

30%

[VOL] Neither candidate

2%

3%

<1%

3%

1%

3%

<1%

<1%

5%

4%

2%

2%

2%

<.5%

<1%

7%

0%

3%

1%

0%

5%

<1%

3%

0%

2%

<1%

<.5%

36%

<1%

<.5%

7%

29%

<.5%

<1%

5%

3%

<1%

2%

2%

0%

4%

[VOL] Someone else; specify

<1%

1%

<1%

<.5%

1%

<1%

<1%

1%

0%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

2%

0%

<.5%

0%

<.5%

2%

3%

0%

2%

0%

2%

1%

<.5%

<1%

10%

0%

0%

11%

11%

0%

1%

<1%

0%

2%

<1%

<.5%

1%

<1%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

2%

2%

2%

4%

<1%

2%

<.5%

1%

<1%

4%

2%

2%

2%

1%

<1%

3%

<1%

1%

1%

1%

<1%

4%

2%

2%

1%

<1%

<1%

26%

0%

<1%

10%

21%

0%

<.5%

4%

<1%

0%

4%

2%

<.5%

<1%

Number of respondents

558

248

302

81

115

199

144

393

88

63

279

278

195

198

76

75

61

152

60

72

110

103

149

130

279

285

246

27

270

229

27

32

170

161

199

174

169

215

247

218

67

Percentage of total electorate

100%

45%

54%

14%

21%

34%

28%

70%

18%

10%

40%

60%

29%

42%

10%

17%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

18%

24%

23%

53%

49%

47%

4%

47%

44%

4%

4%

32%

31%

32%

32%

33%

35%

42%

43%

11%

Regardless of how you might vote, tell me whether you trust Kamala Harris or Donald Trump to do a better job on each of the following:

The economy

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Kamala Harris

44%

38%

49%

50%

53%

38%

45%

37%

84%

31%

56%

37%

55%

25%

63%

65%

31%

41%

57%

41%

58%

39%

58%

42%

39%

90%

<1%

1%

91%

0%

34%

4%

90%

3%

40%

84%

6%

44%

88%

3%

49%

Donald Trump

54%

61%

49%

47%

47%

59%

55%

62%

15%

62%

43%

61%

45%

74%

35%

31%

65%

59%

41%

58%

40%

58%

40%

54%

61%

9%

99%

76%

8%

100%

64%

75%

10%

97%

56%

15%

94%

52%

10%

97%

48%

[VOL] Don’t know/Refused

2%

2%

2%

3%

<1%

2%

<1%

<1%

1%

7%

1%

2%

<1%

1%

2%

4%

4%

<.5%

2%

1%

1%

3%

2%

4%

<.5%

<1%

<.5%

23%

<1%

<.5%

1%

21%

0%

0%

4%

<.5%

0%

4%

3%

0%

3%

Number of respondents

558

248

302

81

115

199

144

393

88

63

279

278

195

198

76

75

61

152

60

72

110

103

149

130

279

285

246

27

270

229

27

32

170

161

199

174

169

215

247

218

67

Percentage of total electorate

100%

45%

54%

14%

21%

34%

28%

70%

18%

10%

40%

60%

29%

42%

10%

17%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

18%

24%

23%

53%

49%

47%

4%

47%

44%

4%

4%

32%

31%

32%

32%

33%

35%

42%

43%

11%

Abortion

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Kamala Harris

55%

50%

58%

73%

63%

50%

46%

46%

90%

55%

67%

47%

65%

33%

73%

79%

44%

53%

77%

49%

62%

48%

73%

51%

48%

97%

12%

45%

97%

10%

59%

45%

93%

12%

57%

90%

15%

60%

96%

12%

70%

Donald Trump

42%

48%

37%

26%

33%

44%

52%

51%

8%

31%

29%

50%

31%

65%

22%

13%

53%

44%

19%

50%

30%

49%

23%

46%

48%

<1%

84%

37%

<1%

86%

36%

38%

5%

85%

38%

9%

82%

34%

2%

85%

23%

[VOL] Don’t know/Refused

4%

2%

5%

1%

4%

6%

3%

3%

2%

13%

4%

4%

3%

2%

5%

7%

3%

3%

4%

1%

8%

3%

4%

3%

4%

2%

4%

19%

2%

4%

5%

17%

2%

3%

5%

2%

3%

6%

2%

3%

7%

Number of respondents

558

248

302

81

115

199

144

393

88

63

279

278

195

198

76

75

61

152

60

72

110

103

149

130

279

285

246

27

270

229

27

32

170

161

199

174

169

215

247

218

67

Percentage of total electorate

100%

45%

54%

14%

21%

34%

28%

70%

18%

10%

40%

60%

29%

42%

10%

17%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

18%

24%

23%

53%

49%

47%

4%

47%

44%

4%

4%

32%

31%

32%

32%

33%

35%

42%

43%

11%

Immigration

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Kamala Harris

45%

38%

50%

56%

57%

38%

40%

36%

80%

44%

58%

37%

55%

23%

65%

68%

34%

41%

59%

36%

61%

40%

59%

40%

41%

88%

2%

29%

89%

1%

23%

38%

86%

4%

44%

85%

4%

46%

86%

3%

55%

Donald Trump

53%

60%

47%

43%

41%

58%

57%

62%

17%

47%

41%

60%

44%

75%

33%

25%

64%

58%

37%

61%

36%

56%

37%

56%

58%

10%

98%

43%

9%

98%

72%

41%

11%

95%

53%

14%

95%

49%

11%

97%

40%

[VOL] Don’t know/Refused

2%

2%

3%

<1%

1%

4%

3%

1%

3%

9%

1%

3%

<1%

2%

2%

7%

2%

<1%

4%

3%

2%

4%

3%

4%

1%

2%

<1%

28%

2%

<1%

5%

21%

3%

<1%

3%

1%

<.5%

6%

3%

<.5%

5%

Number of respondents

558

248

302

81

115

199

144

393

88

63

279

278

195

198

76

75

61

152

60

72

110

103

149

130

279

285

246

27

270

229

27

32

170

161

199

174

169

215

247

218

67

Percentage of total electorate

100%

45%

54%

14%

21%

34%

28%

70%

18%

10%

40%

60%

29%

42%

10%

17%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

18%

24%

23%

53%

49%

47%

4%

47%

44%

4%

4%

32%

31%

32%

32%

33%

35%

42%

43%

11%

Democracy

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Kamala Harris

53%

46%

59%

66%

62%

48%

48%

43%

93%

55%

66%

45%

63%

30%

77%

81%

40%

49%

70%

55%

64%

47%

66%

51%

48%

99%

6%

53%

99%

5%

57%

46%

95%

7%

56%

94%

12%

55%

95%

9%

65%

Donald Trump

44%

51%

39%

33%

32%

50%

51%

55%

4%

41%

31%

53%

34%

69%

21%

16%

59%

49%

26%

45%

30%

53%

30%

47%

50%

<1%

92%

20%

<.5%

94%

37%

28%

4%

91%

39%

6%

86%

40%

3%

90%

27%

[VOL] Don’t know/Refused

2%

3%

2%

1%

6%

2%

1%

2%

2%

4%

3%

2%

4%

1%

2%

4%

<1%

2%

4%

0%

6%

<1%

4%

2%

2%

<1%

2%

28%

<1%

2%

5%

26%

<1%

2%

5%

<.5%

2%

5%

2%

1%

8%

Number of respondents

558

248

302

81

115

199

144

393

88

63

279

278

195

198

76

75

61

152

60

72

110

103

149

130

279

285

246

27

270

229

27

32

170

161

199

174

169

215

247

218

67

Percentage of total electorate

100%

45%

54%

14%

21%

34%

28%

70%

18%

10%

40%

60%

29%

42%

10%

17%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

18%

24%

23%

53%

49%

47%

4%

47%

44%

4%

4%

32%

31%

32%

32%

33%

35%

42%

43%

11%

What single news source do you turn to most often?

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

[VOL] Fox News

19%

22%

16%

10%

11%

21%

26%

25%

3%

6%

10%

25%

13%

34%

3%

5%

27%

20%

6%

18%

15%

22%

14%

19%

21%

2%

38%

3%

2%

41%

0%

3%

3%

43%

13%

6%

39%

12%

2%

39%

10%

[VOL] CNN

11%

10%

12%

11%

16%

9%

10%

8%

21%

13%

12%

10%

9%

8%

21%

16%

13%

11%

19%

5%

10%

8%

15%

9%

9%

17%

4%

6%

17%

4%

13%

10%

20%

6%

7%

18%

7%

8%

17%

5%

13%

[VOL] MSNBC

5%

4%

6%

1%

4%

4%

9%

3%

17%

3%

7%

4%

3%

2%

17%

9%

6%

11%

3%

5%

2%

0%

7%

4%

5%

10%

<.5%

0%

10%

<.5%

0%

0%

13%

1%

2%

11%

2%

3%

11%

<1%

0%

[VOL] Public Radio/NPR/PBS

4%

2%

6%

4%

8%

3%

3%

4%

5%

2%

9%

1%

10%

<1%

6%

2%

1%

3%

4%

3%

8%

5%

9%

3%

3%

9%

0%

2%

9%

0%

0%

1%

8%

0%

5%

9%

<.5%

4%

9%

<.5%

0%

[VOL] Talk radio/conservative personality

<.5%

0%

<.5%

0%

0%

0%

<.5%

0%

0%

0%

<.5%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

<1%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

<.5%

0%

0%

<.5%

0%

0%

<.5%

0%

0%

0%

<.5%

0%

0%

0%

<.5%

0%

<.5%

0%

[VOL] National television networks, like CBS, NBC or ABC

13%

10%

15%

5%

10%

15%

16%

12%

14%

16%

12%

14%

12%

11%

9%

18%

2%

14%

21%

12%

12%

17%

15%

10%

13%

16%

10%

14%

16%

10%

16%

9%

17%

10%

12%

18%

9%

13%

15%

10%

15%

[VOL] Local broadcast news (includes non-talk, non-public local radio)

4%

2%

6%

3%

3%

3%

7%

4%

8%

<.5%

2%

6%

1%

5%

4%

6%

1%

5%

3%

9%

2%

4%

5%

1%

5%

3%

5%

1%

3%

5%

6%

3%

5%

6%

<.5%

4%

7%

2%

3%

6%

5%

[VOL] National print or online news organizations, like The New York Times or The Wall Street Journal

8%

10%

7%

21%

8%

4%

6%

9%

2%

16%

13%

5%

15%

4%

8%

6%

8%

3%

14%

6%

13%

10%

11%

6%

8%

14%

2%

10%

14%

2%

5%

10%

13%

2%

9%

11%

2%

12%

12%

2%

18%

[VOL] Local print or online news organizations

<.5%

0%

<.5%

0%

0%

<.5%

0%

0%

<1%

0%

0%

<.5%

0%

0%

0%

<1%

0%

0%

0%

1%

0%

0%

<1%

0%

0%

<.5%

0%

0%

<.5%

0%

0%

0%

<1%

0%

0%

<1%

0%

0%

<.5%

0%

0%

[VOL] Social media

14%

15%

13%

27%

19%

14%

4%

12%

11%

25%

14%

14%

12%

13%

15%

17%

17%

9%

16%

15%

13%

17%

8%

17%

15%

12%

15%

24%

11%

14%

36%

18%

8%

7%

24%

7%

11%

23%

13%

13%

24%

[VOL] Friends and family

<.5%

0%

<1%

1%

0%

<.5%

0%

<.5%

<1%

0%

<.5%

<.5%

0%

<.5%

2%

0%

0%

<1%

0%

0%

0%

<1%

0%

0%

<1%

<.5%

<.5%

0%

0%

<.5%

4%

0%

0%

<.5%

<1%

<1%

0%

<.5%

0%

<1%

0%

[VOL] International news sources (such as the BBC, Al Jazeera and The Guardian)

3%

4%

2%

2%

4%

3%

1%

2%

3%

2%

3%

2%

3%

2%

2%

3%

3%

2%

0%

5%

4%

2%

1%

5%

2%

2%

3%

6%

3%

2%

5%

7%

1%

1%

5%

3%

2%

3%

4%

2%

2%

[VOL] Aggregation sites (such as Bing, Google, Yahoo News or Apple News)

2%

2%

2%

3%

3%

2%

1%

2%

2%

0%

3%

1%

3%

1%

2%

1%

0%

2%

1%

2%

3%

3%

4%

3%

<1%

4%

<.5%

3%

4%

<.5%

0%

3%

4%

0%

3%

2%

<.5%

3%

4%

<.5%

2%

[VOL] Conservative news sites

2%

3%

2%

3%

6%

<1%

<1%

2%

0%

4%

2%

2%

3%

2%

<1%

2%

0%

5%

1%

2%

<1%

<1%

2%

2%

3%

<.5%

4%

0%

<.5%

4%

0%

0%

0%

4%

3%

0%

4%

2%

<.5%

4%

1%

[VOL] Newsmax

3%

2%

4%

1%

<.5%

5%

4%

4%

0%

7%

2%

4%

1%

5%

5%

<1%

9%

4%

0%

4%

<1%

2%

<1%

6%

3%

0%

7%

0%

0%

7%

0%

0%

0%

8%

1%

1%

6%

2%

0%

7%

0%

[VOL] Liberal news sites (Such as Mother Jones and Occupy Democrats)

<1%

2%

<.5%

0%

0%

2%

0%

<1%

2%

0%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

0%

2%

1%

<.5%

0%

4%

0%

0%

<1%

2%

<1%

1%

<.5%

3%

1%

0%

0%

6%

<1%

<.5%

1%

1%

0%

1%

<1%

<.5%

0%

[VOL] Doesn’t consume news

1%

2%

<1%

0%

0%

2%

1%

<1%

4%

0%

<.5%

2%

0%

2%

1%

3%

3%

<1%

1%

0%

4%

0%

<.5%

<1%

2%

0%

1%

17%

0%

2%

0%

16%

0%

2%

2%

2%

2%

<1%

0%

2%

0%

[VOL] Other (includes no preference and the internet)

7%

8%

6%

6%

6%

6%

9%

8%

6%

3%

8%

6%

10%

6%

2%

6%

5%

7%

9%

4%

10%

6%

6%

9%

7%

9%

5%

9%

8%

4%

14%

10%

6%

5%

10%

7%

6%

8%

9%

5%

5%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

2%

3%

2%

2%

1%

4%

2%

2%

1%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

1%

2%

2%

0%

4%

1%

3%

<1%

2%

3%

<1%

4%

2%

1%

4%

2%

4%

1%

4%

3%

<.5%

4%

3%

<.5%

4%

4%

Number of respondents

558

248

302

81

115

199

144

393

88

63

279

278

195

198

76

75

61

152

60

72

110

103

149

130

279

285

246

27

270

229

27

32

170

161

199

174

169

215

247

218

67

Percentage of total electorate

100%

45%

54%

14%

21%

34%

28%

70%

18%

10%

40%

60%

29%

42%

10%

17%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

18%

24%

23%

53%

49%

47%

4%

47%

44%

4%

4%

32%

31%

32%

32%

33%

35%

42%

43%

11%

How often, if ever, do you use social media, such as Facebook, Instagram, TikTok or others?

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Often

52%

46%

58%

76%

62%

47%

39%

51%

54%

52%

54%

51%

53%

50%

55%

52%

58%

46%

56%

51%

54%

53%

53%

55%

50%

56%

50%

30%

56%

50%

43%

39%

55%

48%

54%

49%

51%

55%

57%

47%

62%

Sometimes

20%

18%

19%

17%

17%

25%

17%

20%

18%

25%

18%

21%

19%

20%

18%

22%

24%

18%

20%

19%

22%

17%

15%

26%

19%

19%

21%

11%

19%

20%

23%

12%

19%

22%

17%

20%

18%

21%

16%

22%

25%

Rarely

14%

14%

14%

4%

10%

16%

19%

13%

17%

14%

16%

13%

15%

12%

20%

13%

5%

22%

18%

9%

9%

14%

18%

8%

15%

13%

14%

32%

13%

14%

21%

19%

14%

15%

14%

18%

11%

13%

16%

15%

4%

Never

14%

22%

8%

4%

10%

12%

25%

16%

11%

8%

12%

16%

14%

17%

6%

12%

13%

14%

6%

20%

15%

16%

14%

10%

16%

12%

16%

27%

12%

15%

13%

30%

12%

16%

15%

13%

19%

11%

12%

16%

9%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

<.5%

0%

<.5%

0%

0%

<.5%

0%

0%

<1%

0%

<.5%

0%

0%

0%

1%

0%

0%

0%

0%

<1%

0%

0%

0%

0%

<.5%

<.5%

0%

0%

<.5%

0%

0%

0%

<.5%

0%

0%

<.5%

0%

0%

<.5%

0%

0%

Number of respondents

558

248

302

81

115

199

144

393

88

63

279

278

195

198

76

75

61

152

60

72

110

103

149

130

279

285

246

27

270

229

27

32

170

161

199

174

169

215

247

218

67

Percentage of total electorate

100%

45%

54%

14%

21%

34%

28%

70%

18%

10%

40%

60%

29%

42%

10%

17%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

18%

24%

23%

53%

49%

47%

4%

47%

44%

4%

4%

32%

31%

32%

32%

33%

35%

42%

43%

11%

(If social media user) How often, if ever, do you use TikTok?

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Often

15%

13%

17%

55%

18%

10%

1%

13%

18%

29%

15%

16%

13%

14%

23%

21%

21%

13%

19%

14%

16%

14%

14%

18%

15%

17%

14%

6%

17%

14%

19%

9%

18%

15%

14%

15%

14%

17%

13%

10%

46%

Sometimes

11%

10%

12%

11%

15%

13%

7%

7%

20%

22%

9%

13%

7%

8%

14%

25%

10%

17%

15%

8%

3%

11%

12%

11%

11%

14%

9%

5%

14%

9%

5%

7%

15%

9%

9%

16%

9%

8%

15%

8%

12%

Rarely

14%

11%

17%

5%

16%

20%

10%

14%

11%

16%

17%

12%

17%

12%

15%

11%

14%

11%

26%

6%

14%

16%

13%

13%

15%

13%

14%

22%

13%

14%

9%

24%

13%

10%

17%

16%

12%

13%

15%

16%

9%

Never

45%

44%

46%

26%

41%

45%

57%

49%

39%

24%

47%

44%

49%

49%

40%

30%

41%

45%

35%

50%

51%

43%

46%

47%

44%

44%

47%

39%

44%

47%

54%

31%

40%

50%

45%

40%

44%

51%

46%

50%

24%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

<.5%

0%

<.5%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

<.5%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

2%

0%

0%

0%

1%

0%

0%

<1%

0%

0%

<1%

0%

0%

<1%

0%

0%

0%

<1%

0%

0%

<1%

0%

[PREVIOUSLY] Never use social media

14%

22%

8%

4%

10%

12%

25%

16%

11%

8%

12%

16%

14%

17%

6%

12%

13%

14%

6%

20%

15%

16%

14%

10%

16%

12%

16%

27%

12%

15%

13%

30%

12%

16%

15%

13%

19%

11%

12%

16%

9%

[PREVIOUSLY] Don't know/Refused

<.5%

0%

<.5%

0%

0%

<.5%

0%

0%

<1%

0%

<.5%

0%

0%

0%

1%

0%

0%

0%

0%

<1%

0%

0%

0%

0%

<.5%

<.5%

0%

0%

<.5%

0%

0%

0%

<.5%

0%

0%

<.5%

0%

0%

<.5%

0%

0%

Number of respondents

558

248

302

81

115

199

144

393

88

63

279

278

195

198

76

75

61

152

60

72

110

103

149

130

279

285

246

27

270

229

27

32

170

161

199

174

169

215

247

218

67

Percentage of total electorate

100%

45%

54%

14%

21%

34%

28%

70%

18%

10%

40%

60%

29%

42%

10%

17%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

18%

24%

23%

53%

49%

47%

4%

47%

44%

4%

4%

32%

31%

32%

32%

33%

35%

42%

43%

11%

(Without combination) (If social media user) How often, if ever, do you use TikTok?

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Often

18%

17%

18%

57%

21%

11%

2%

16%

20%

31%

17%

18%

15%

17%

25%

24%

25%

15%

20%

18%

19%

17%

17%

20%

18%

20%

17%

9%

19%

17%

22%

12%

20%

17%

16%

17%

18%

19%

15%

12%

51%

Sometimes

13%

13%

13%

11%

17%

15%

9%

9%

23%

25%

10%

15%

8%

9%

15%

29%

12%

20%

16%

10%

4%

13%

14%

12%

13%

15%

11%

8%

16%

11%

6%

10%

18%

11%

10%

18%

12%

9%

17%

9%

13%

Rarely

16%

14%

18%

5%

18%

23%

13%

17%

12%

18%

19%

14%

20%

14%

17%

13%

16%

13%

27%

7%

17%

19%

16%

14%

17%

15%

16%

30%

15%

16%

10%

34%

15%

12%

21%

19%

15%

15%

17%

19%

9%

Never

53%

56%

50%

27%

45%

51%

76%

59%

45%

27%

53%

52%

57%

60%

43%

35%

48%

52%

37%

63%

61%

51%

53%

53%

52%

50%

55%

54%

50%

55%

62%

44%

46%

60%

53%

46%

55%

57%

52%

59%

26%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

<.5%

0%

<.5%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

<.5%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

2%

0%

0%

0%

1%

0%

0%

<1%

0%

0%

<1%

0%

0%

<1%

0%

0%

0%

<1%

0%

0%

<1%

0%

Number of respondents

486

198

281

79

103

176

112

336

80

58

245

240

170

166

69

69

55

134

55

59

95

88

127

118

241

251

212

23

238

197

24

27

147

138

175

151

139

196

217

188

62

Percentage of total electorate

100%

41%

57%

16%

22%

35%

25%

69%

18%

11%

41%

59%

29%

40%

11%

18%

11%

29%

11%

12%

19%

18%

24%

24%

52%

50%

46%

3%

48%

44%

4%

4%

33%

31%

32%

33%

31%

37%

43%

42%

12%

And just a few more questions for demographic purposes...

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Very liberal

10%

8%

11%

14%

14%

9%

4%

10%

13%

1%

14%

7%

15%

7%

11%

8%

11%

5%

8%

10%

16%

9%

12%

13%

7%

19%

<1%

1%

20%

<.5%

<1%

3%

21%

<.5%

7%

17%

0%

12%

19%

<.5%

8%

Somewhat liberal

12%

11%

12%

24%

17%

7%

9%

8%

20%

25%

15%

10%

14%

5%

18%

24%

6%

11%

26%

6%

9%

16%

17%

9%

11%

23%

<1%

5%

24%

<1%

5%

0%

24%

<.5%

11%

23%

<1%

12%

20%

<.5%

24%

Moderate

34%

35%

32%

34%

35%

36%

33%

32%

43%

31%

44%

27%

45%

24%

43%

36%

29%

35%

46%

33%

42%

22%

42%

33%

31%

45%

20%

68%

44%

18%

55%

67%

39%

14%

48%

40%

19%

42%

48%

18%

41%

Somewhat conservative

18%

24%

14%

12%

18%

20%

17%

20%

9%

22%

14%

21%

13%

25%

17%

12%

25%

16%

9%

22%

15%

22%

14%

19%

20%

6%

31%

15%

6%

32%

13%

18%

4%

34%

16%

7%

29%

18%

5%

33%

10%

Very conservative

22%

19%

26%

11%

14%

25%

32%

28%

5%

13%

12%

29%

13%

37%

7%

9%

28%

26%

10%

24%

12%

29%

12%

23%

27%

3%

45%

0%

2%

46%

24%

2%

5%

50%

14%

6%

50%

12%

3%

45%

11%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

4%

3%

5%

5%

1%

4%

4%

2%

9%

8%

1%

6%

0%

3%

4%

11%

<1%

7%

1%

5%

4%

2%

3%

3%

5%

4%

4%

11%

4%

4%

2%

10%

7%

<1%

3%

5%

2%

5%

4%

3%

6%

Number of respondents

558

248

302

81

115

199

144

393

88

63

279

278

195

198

76

75

61

152

60

72

110

103

149

130

279

285

246

27

270

229

27

32

170

161

199

174

169

215

247

218

67

Percentage of total electorate

100%

45%

54%

14%

21%

34%

28%

70%

18%

10%

40%

60%

29%

42%

10%

17%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

18%

24%

23%

53%

49%

47%

4%

47%

44%

4%

4%

32%

31%

32%

32%

33%

35%

42%

43%

11%

Which of the following general income categories is your total household income before taxes?

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Under $25,000

11%

8%

13%

16%

3%

16%

10%

9%

16%

21%

3%

17%

2%

14%

6%

24%

18%

7%

7%

9%

12%

18%

9%

13%

12%

11%

10%

42%

10%

10%

26%

27%

13%

11%

11%

15%

9%

11%

9%

10%

19%

At least $25,000 but under $50,000

15%

14%

16%

29%

10%

10%

17%

12%

23%

23%

7%

20%

7%

15%

8%

33%

15%

15%

11%

20%

14%

13%

14%

15%

15%

17%

13%

10%

17%

12%

21%

10%

15%

14%

15%

14%

13%

17%

14%

13%

26%

At least $50,000 but under $100,000

27%

24%

31%

23%

28%

26%

32%

29%

34%

8%

27%

28%

24%

32%

35%

19%

23%

36%

20%

31%

20%

27%

25%

27%

29%

28%

28%

16%

28%

27%

19%

27%

26%

28%

28%

26%

29%

27%

29%

28%

18%

At least $100,000 but under $200,000

28%

31%

25%

14%

43%

28%

24%

30%

15%

32%

39%

20%

42%

22%

29%

16%

34%

28%

25%

26%

32%

22%

25%

31%

28%

27%

29%

22%

28%

30%

21%

18%

31%

29%

25%

29%

32%

23%

31%

29%

15%

$200,000 or more

12%

16%

8%

11%

15%

15%

5%

13%

8%

10%

20%

6%

21%

8%

19%

3%

8%

8%

33%

8%

12%

11%

19%

9%

10%

11%

14%

5%

10%

14%

13%

4%

8%

11%

16%

8%

14%

14%

11%

12%

16%

[VOL] Refused

7%

6%

6%

7%

<1%

5%

12%

7%

5%

5%

4%

9%

4%

10%

3%

6%

2%

7%

5%

6%

9%

9%

9%

5%

6%

7%

7%

5%

6%

7%

0%

13%

7%

8%

6%

8%

4%

8%

6%

8%

7%

Number of respondents

558

248

302

81

115

199

144

393

88

63

279

278

195

198

76

75

61

152

60

72

110

103

149

130

279

285

246

27

270

229

27

32

170

161

199

174

169

215

247

218

67

Percentage of total electorate

100%

45%

54%

14%

21%

34%

28%

70%

18%

10%

40%

60%

29%

42%

10%

17%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

18%

24%

23%

53%

49%

47%

4%

47%

44%

4%

4%

32%

31%

32%

32%

33%

35%

42%

43%

11%

Do you consider yourself Catholic, Protestant, Mormon, Jewish, Muslim, some other religion, or do you have no religious affiliation?

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Catholic

10%

12%

9%

17%

10%

9%

8%

10%

3%

16%

9%

10%

12%

9%

1%

12%

16%

10%

17%

3%

12%

5%

11%

15%

7%

9%

10%

10%

10%

10%

13%

8%

10%

13%

7%

7%

13%

10%

10%

9%

13%

Protestant (Christian)

39%

37%

41%

23%

30%

42%

49%

43%

31%

28%

41%

38%

41%

45%

42%

23%

30%

41%

33%

45%

39%

41%

37%

36%

41%

27%

52%

35%

26%

52%

45%

31%

29%

53%

38%

29%

55%

33%

29%

54%

17%

Mormon (LDS)

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

<.5%

<1%

0%

5%

1%

<1%

<.5%

<1%

3%

1%

0%

1%

0%

2%

<1%

2%

<1%

2%

<1%

0%

2%

0%

0%

2%

0%

0%

0%

3%

<.5%

0%

2%

2%

0%

2%

0%

Jewish

<1%

<1%

<1%

0%

<1%

2%

0%

1%

0%

0%

2%

0%

3%

0%

0%

0%

0%

<.5%

1%

<1%

2%

0%

<1%

1%

<1%

1%

<1%

0%

1%

<1%

0%

0%

2%

<.5%

<.5%

2%

<1%

0%

1%

<.5%

0%

Muslim

<.5%

0%

<1%

2%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

3%

0%

<1%

0%

0%

0%

2%

0%

0%

0%

2%

0%

0%

1%

0%

0%

<1%

0%

0%

<1%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

<1%

0%

0%

3%

[VOL] Christian (includes Baptist, Lutheran, Episcopalian, Methodist, Adventist, Presbyterian)

18%

15%

20%

13%

16%

22%

16%

13%

38%

13%

12%

22%

7%

17%

23%

32%

20%

20%

23%

20%

10%

18%

16%

16%

20%

18%

19%

6%

17%

19%

19%

11%

24%

15%

13%

24%

16%

14%

18%

18%

22%

[VOL] Greek/Russian Orthodox

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

Some other religion (specify)

2%

3%

2%

5%

5%

2%

<.5%

2%

2%

4%

3%

2%

3%

2%

4%

1%

1%

1%

4%

<1%

4%

3%

5%

1%

2%

4%

<1%

5%

4%

<1%

0%

5%

4%

0%

2%

4%

0%

3%

4%

<.5%

5%

No religious affiliation

26%

27%

25%

38%

38%

17%

22%

27%

22%

30%

30%

24%

32%

23%

26%

25%

32%

25%

21%

23%

27%

29%

26%

28%

25%

39%

12%

30%

40%

12%

23%

28%

31%

13%

35%

31%

11%

35%

37%

13%

40%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

2%

4%

<.5%

0%

0%

4%

4%

2%

4%

0%

2%

3%

2%

3%

1%

3%

2%

2%

1%

3%

4%

2%

<1%

0%

4%

1%

3%

15%

1%

3%

0%

17%

<.5%

2%

5%

3%

2%

2%

1%

3%

0%

Number of respondents

558

248

302

81

115

199

144

393

88

63

279

278

195

198

76

75

61

152

60

72

110

103

149

130

279

285

246

27

270

229

27

32

170

161

199

174

169

215

247

218

67

Percentage of total electorate

100%

45%

54%

14%

21%

34%

28%

70%

18%

10%

40%

60%

29%

42%

10%

17%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

18%

24%

23%

53%

49%

47%

4%

47%

44%

4%

4%

32%

31%

32%

32%

33%

35%

42%

43%

11%

(If Protestant, Christian, Mormon, Greek/Russian Orthodox or some other religion) Do you consider yourself an evangelical or born-again Christian?

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Yes

40%

36%

45%

19%

35%

48%

43%

38%

51%

30%

30%

47%

24%

48%

46%

42%

29%

46%

27%

45%

33%

49%

29%

33%

48%

26%

56%

25%

26%

56%

50%

28%

34%

50%

36%

35%

54%

32%

29%

57%

17%

No

22%

24%

21%

23%

21%

21%

23%

23%

20%

20%

28%

17%

30%

18%

24%

18%

20%

17%

36%

23%

25%

17%

32%

23%

16%

24%

19%

35%

24%

19%

14%

35%

23%

22%

21%

25%

19%

22%

23%

18%

26%

[PREVIOUSLY] Catholic, Jewish, Muslim, no religious affiliation or refused

38%

40%

34%

56%

45%

30%

33%

39%

26%

50%

41%

36%

45%

34%

28%

39%

48%

36%

36%

32%

41%

34%

38%

44%

35%

49%

25%

40%

50%

25%

36%

36%

42%

28%

42%

40%

26%

45%

47%

24%

56%

[VOL] Refused

<1%

<1%

<.5%

2%

0%

<.5%

<1%

<.5%

2%

0%

1%

<.5%

<1%

0%

3%

<.5%

3%

<.5%

<1%

0%

<.5%

0%

<1%

<1%

<.5%

<1%

<.5%

0%

<1%

<.5%

0%

1%

<.5%

0%

1%

<1%

<.5%

<1%

1%

0%

<1%

Number of respondents

558

248

302

81

115

199

144

393

88

63

279

278

195

198

76

75

61

152

60

72

110

103

149

130

279

285

246

27

270

229

27

32

170

161

199

174

169

215

247

218

67

Percentage of total electorate

100%

45%

54%

14%

21%

34%

28%

70%

18%

10%

40%

60%

29%

42%

10%

17%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

18%

24%

23%

53%

49%

47%

4%

47%

44%

4%

4%

32%

31%

32%

32%

33%

35%

42%

43%

11%

Would you be open to commenting on the issues in this survey and be interested in being contacted by a reporter?

Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

2024 Vote (Includes Third Parties)

Party ID

Party Reg.

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Oth.

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Charlotte Suburbs

East

Mecklenburg

Piedmont Triad

Raleigh-Durham

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Harris

Trump

Kennedy

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Dem.

Rep.

Oth.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Yes

34%

40%

29%

22%

41%

39%

31%

38%

27%

27%

42%

29%

45%

33%

37%

22%

37%

30%

37%

29%

40%

34%

35%

37%

32%

33%

36%

20%

34%

36%

32%

23%

34%

28%

37%

33%

35%

34%

35%

36%

21%

No

66%

60%

71%

78%

59%

61%

69%

62%

73%

73%

58%

71%

55%

67%

63%

78%

63%

70%

63%

71%

60%

66%

65%

63%

68%

67%

64%

80%

66%

64%

68%

77%

66%

72%

63%

67%

65%

66%

65%

64%

79%

Number of respondents

558

248

302

81

115

199

144

393

88

63

279

278

195

198

76

75

61

152

60

72

110

103

149

130

279

285

246

27

270

229

27

32

170

161

199

174

169

215

247

218

67

Percentage of total electorate

100%

45%

54%

14%

21%

34%

28%

70%

18%

10%

40%

60%

29%

42%

10%

17%

11%

29%

10%

13%

19%

18%

24%

23%

53%

49%

47%

4%

47%

44%

4%

4%

32%

31%

32%

32%

33%

35%

42%

43%

11%

Party ID is self-identified party, without leaners; independents include only self-identified independents.

Gender is self-reported if the respondent completed the full questionnaire; otherwise, it is based on the interviewer’s determination. If neither are available, it is as reported on the voter file.

Neighborhood type is a New York Times classification based on each voter’s address. Voters within a metropolitan area’s central city are classified as living in a city. Voters living in a metropolitan area but outside the central city are considered suburban if they live in a census-designated urban area. All other voters — those living in nonmetropolitan areas, and those living in non-urbanized parts of metropolitan areas outside the central city — are classified as living in small towns or rural areas.

How This Poll Was Conducted

Here are the key things to know about these Times/Siena polls:

• Interviewers spoke with 677 registered voters in Arizona from Aug. 8 to 15; 661 registered voters in Georgia and 655 registered voters in North Carolina from Aug. 9 to 14; and 677 registered voters in Nevada from Aug. 12 to 15.

• Times/Siena polls are conducted by telephone, using live interviewers, in both English and Spanish. More than 95 percent of respondents were contacted on a cellphone for these polls.

• Voters are selected for Times/Siena surveys from a list of registered voters. The list contains information on the demographic characteristics of every registered voter, allowing us to make sure we reach the right number of voters of each party, race and region. For these polls, interviewers placed more than 276,000 calls to nearly 183,000 voters.

• To further ensure that the results reflect the entire voting population, not just those willing to take a poll, we give more weight to respondents from demographic groups that are underrepresented among survey respondents, like people without a college degree. You can see more information about the characteristics of our respondents and the weighted sample at the bottom of the page, under “Composition of the Sample.”

• The margin of sampling error among registered voters is plus or minus 2.1 percentage points across the four states, plus or minus 4.1 percentage points in Arizona and Georgia, and plus or minus 4.2 percentage points in Nevada and North Carolina. In theory, this means that the results should reflect the views of the overall population most of the time, though many other challenges create additional sources of error. When computing the difference between two values — such as a candidate’s lead in a race — the margin of error is twice as large.

If you want to read more about how and why we conduct our polls, you can see answers to frequently asked questions and submit your own questions here.

Full Methodology

The New York Times/Siena College polls were conducted in English and Spanish on cellular and landline telephones in Arizona from Aug. 8 to 15, 2024; in Georgia and North Carolina from Aug. 9 to 14, 2024; and in Nevada from Aug. 12 to 15, 2024. In all, 2,670 registered voters were interviewed. When all states are joined together, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.1 percentage points for all registered voters and plus or minus 2.2 percentage points for the likely electorate.

The margin of sampling error among registered voters for each state poll is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points in Arizona and Georgia, and plus or minus 4.2 percentage points in Nevada and North Carolina. Among the likely electorate, it is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, and plus or minus 4.2 points in North Carolina.

Sample

The survey is a response rate-adjusted stratified sample of registered voters on the L2 voter file. The sample was selected by The New York Times in multiple steps to account for differential telephone coverage, nonresponse and significant variation in the productivity of telephone numbers by state.

The L2 voter file for each state was stratified by statehouse district, party, race, gender, marital status, household size, turnout history, age and homeownership. The proportion of registrants with a telephone number and the mean expected response rate, based on prior Times/Siena polls, were calculated for each stratum. The initial selection weight was equal to the reciprocal of a stratum’s mean telephone coverage and modeled response rate. For respondents with multiple telephone numbers on the L2 file, the number with the highest modeled response rate was selected.

Fielding

The samples for each state were stratified by political party, race and region and were fielded by the Siena College Research Institute, with additional field work by ReconMR, the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University of North Florida, and the Institute of Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College. Interviewers asked for the person named on the voter file and ended the interview if the intended respondent was not available. Overall, 96 percent of respondents were reached on a cellular telephone.

The instrument was translated into Spanish by ReconMR. Bilingual interviewers began the interview in English and were instructed to follow the lead of the respondent in determining whether to conduct the survey in English or Spanish. Monolingual Spanish-speaking respondents who were initially contacted by English-speaking interviewers were recontacted by Spanish-speaking interviewers. Overall, 13 percent of interviews among self-reported Hispanics were conducted in Spanish, including 12 percent of weighted interviews.

An interview was determined to be complete for the purposes of inclusion in the ballot test question if the respondent did not drop out of the survey by the end of the two self-reported variables used in weighting — age and education — and answered at least one of the age, education, race or presidential election ballot test questions.

Weighting — registered voters

The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package in multiple steps.

First, the sample was adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum.

Second, the sample was weighted to match voter file-based parameters for the characteristics of registered voters.

The following targets were used:

• Party (party registration if available in the state, else classification based on participation in partisan primaries if available in the state, else classification based on a model of vote choice in prior Times/Siena polls) by whether the respondent’s race is modeled as white or nonwhite (L2 model)

• Age (Self-reported age, or voter file age if the respondent refuses) by gender (L2)

• Race or ethnicity (L2 model)

• Education (four categories of self-reported education level, weighted to match NYT-based targets derived from Times/Siena polls, census data and the L2 voter file)

• White/non-white race by college or non-college educational attainment (L2 model of race weighted to match NYT-based targets for self-reported education)

• Marital status (L2 model)

• Home ownership (L2 model)

• State region (NYT classifications)

• Turnout history (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

• Method of voting in the 2020 elections (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

• History of voting in the 2020 presidential primary, in North Carolina (L2)

• Major party registration or participation in party primary, in Arizona (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

• Census tract educational attainment, in Arizona and Nevada

Finally, the sample of respondents who completed all questions in the survey was weighted identically, as well as to the result for the general election horse race question (including leaners) on the full sample.

Weighting — likely electorate

The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package in multiple steps.

First, the samples were adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum.

Second, the first-stage weight was adjusted to account for the probability that a registrant would vote in the 2024 election, based on a model of turnout in the 2020 election.

Third, the sample was weighted to match targets for the composition of the likely electorate. The targets for the composition of the likely electorate were derived by aggregating the individual-level turnout estimates described in the previous step for registrants on the L2 voter file. The categories used in weighting were the same as those previously mentioned for registered voters.

Fourth, the initial likely electorate weight was adjusted to incorporate self-reported intention to vote. Four-fifths of the final probability that a registrant would vote in the 2024 election was based on their ex ante modeled turnout score and one-fifth based on their self-reported intentions, based on prior Times/Siena polls, including a penalty to account for the tendency of survey respondents to turn out at higher rates than nonrespondents. The final likely electorate weight was equal to the modeled electorate rake weight, multiplied by the final turnout probability and divided by the ex ante modeled turnout probability.

Finally, the sample of respondents who completed all questions in the survey was weighted identically, as well as to the result for the general election horse race question (including leaners) on the full sample.

The margin of error accounts for the survey’s design effect, a measure of the loss of statistical power due to survey design and weighting. The design effect for the full sample is 1.2 for registered voters and 1.35 for the likely electorate in Arizona, 1.18 for registered voters and 1.35 for the likely electorate in Georgia,1.22 for registered voters and 1.37 for the likely electorate in Nevada, and 1.18 for registered voters and 1.19 for likely voters in North Carolina.

For the sample of completed interviews, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4.6 points for registered voters and plus or minus 4.8 points for the likely electorate in Arizona, plus or minus 4.7 points for registered voters and plus or minus 5.1 points for the likely electorate in Georgia, plus or minus 4.6 points for registered voters and plus or minus 4.8 points for the likely electorate in Nevada, plus or minus 4.7 points for registered voters and plus or minus 4.7 points for the likely electorate in North Carolina.

The design effect for the sample of completed interviews is 1.24 for registered voters and 1.35 for the likely electorate in Arizona, 1.22 for registered voters and 1.45 for the likely electorate in Georgia, 1.24 for registered voters and 1.35 for the likely electorate in Nevada, and 1.28 for registered voters and 1.28 for the likely electorate in North Carolina.

Historically, The Times/Siena Poll’s error at the 95th percentile has been plus or minus 5.1 percentage points in surveys taken over the final three weeks before an election. Real-world error includes sources of error beyond sampling error, such as nonresponse bias, coverage error, late shifts among undecided voters and error in estimating the composition of the electorate.

Composition of the Sample

Group

Unweighted All R.V.s

Weighted All R.V.s

Weighted Likely Electorate

N

Gender

Men

45%

46%

46%

295

Women

54

52

53

352

Age

18 to 29

15%

18%

14%

98

30 to 44

21

22

21

135

45 to 64

36

31

33

235

65 and older

25

25

28

165

Education

High school

17%

29%

27%

112

Some college

34

33

32

223

College

26

24

25

171

Post-graduate

22

14

15

147

Home Ownership (L2 Model)

Likely renter

17%

19%

16%

112

Likely homeowner

59

59

63

389

Unknown

24

22

20

154

Marital Status (L2 Model)

Married

56%

54%

60%

367

Unknown

44

46

40

288

Party (Self-Reported)

Democrat

30%

30%

30%

195

Republican

29

30

32

192

Independent

34

33

32

224

Party (Based on L2 Data)

Democrat

32%

32%

33%

210

Republican

31

31

33

200

Other

37

38

35

245

Race (L2 Model)

White

67%

65%

68%

442

Hispanic

4

4

3

28

Black

19

19

18

123

Asian

1

1

1

8

Other

2

2

1

13

Race (L2 Model)

White

67%

65%

68%

442

Nonwhite

27

27

25

177

State Region

East

29%

29%

29%

187

Charlotte Suburbs

11

11

11

69

Mecklenburg

11

10

10

70

Piedmont Triad

13

13

13

84

Raleigh-Durham

19

19

19

124

Turnout History (Based on L2 Data)

Voted in last midterm and in a primary

49%

43%

49%

320

Voted in last two midterms

19

20

22

124

Voted in last general, no midterm

13

15

14

88

Did not vote in last general or midterm

6

7

4

38

New registrant

13

14

10

85

Cross-Tabs: August 2024 Times/Siena Poll of the Likely Electorate in North Carolina (2025)
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